547 FXUS64 KLIX 231819 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Models continue to display a very common trend where they contradict themselves. The major part of this is setting precip chances at 80% or higher with high temps in the mid 90s. These two rarely(if ever) match up. For one, if there is a 60% or higher chance of rain and it is verified to be accurate for that day, then there is just too many storms around with cloud debris and cooling rains to allow the temp to climb to the mid 90s. But if the the high temp is accurate for the day, then there can't be so many storms around which would allow for max insolation. There are always those one or two locations that don't get rain and reach these mid 90s temps during the day eventhough that location had an 80% chance of rain. But even that location falls into this same example by not getting any rain or cloud cover allowing their temps to rise with a full day of sun. Soooo, we know that one of these fields is normally in error and most times, the NBM is closer with temps than it is with precip numbers and therefore we trim back on precip numbers when temps reach the mid 90s in model fields. This exact scenario occurred yesterday and again today where the precip numbers are too high. We are showing a normal distribution today with 30-40% which has come way down from yesterdays values and this looks more in line with the high convective temps. Tue will be a bit different as convective temps should fall back into the upper 80s. When this occurs, the SST can come into play providing the heat content to develop nocturnals and storms are more easily promoted which lead to a naturally higher precip number. 50-80% with proper placement looks good for this as SST are in the mid to upper 80s with even a 90F showing up at Grand Isle. This should easily help develop nocturnals tonight into Tue giving everyone a better chance of cooling sh/ts. This will be induced via an easterly wave moving through. Once it is west of the area, we will fall back into a more typical summer precip pattern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Dropping back into a typical precip pattern is showing up in the model fields via the high temps moving into the mid 90s again starting Wed. Precip numbers may be too high after Tue but we will back these down a bit as we move through the week. The next easterly wave looks to move through possibly by the weekend but we will need to get closer to that time frame to give any details. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Showers and storms are beginning to pop up along the lake and sea breezes providing brief MVFR to IFR impacts to terminals this afternoon. ASD is already seeing these impacts with RA, MVFR VIS, and 15-20kt gusts. Expect more of the same elsewhere, especially inland terminals at HDC, BTR, and MCB as the afternoon progresses. PROB30s have been updated to reflect the latest forecast timing for storm development/propagation. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with light easterly winds at night gusting to 10-15 knots during the daytime. Another round of showers and storms is likely to start earlier tomorrow starting over the coastal waters and moving inland into the late morning and have added PROB30s to MSY, NEW, and GPT to start at the end of the forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Easterly to southeasterly winds at less than 15 knots are expected while we stay positioned on the southwest flank of the Bermuda High over the southwest Atlantic through Tuesday. Higher chances of storms are expected today and Tuesday as a weak easterly wave passes by. A few of these storms could be strong and cause significant wind shifts, high winds and seas, frequent lightning, and waterspouts. Winds will become lighter and more variable as high pressure moves overhead Wednesday through Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 72 92 72 95 / 30 30 0 20 BTR 74 93 74 96 / 30 60 10 30 ASD 73 92 73 95 / 30 40 0 20 MSY 80 92 79 95 / 20 60 10 20 GPT 75 91 75 94 / 30 30 10 20 PQL 73 94 73 97 / 30 30 10 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TE LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TJS MARINE...TJS