933 FXUS64 KLIX 230446 AAB AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1146 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...NEW AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Hot and humid conditions continue across the area with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat indices upwards of 107F, mainly along the I-10 corridor and Pearl River basin. Agitated cu is beginning to become more apparent along the lake and sea breezes indicating initiation of showers and storms along these boundaries is likely imminent. These showers and storms will be pretty comparable to yesterday with weak shear, high DCAPE (>1000 j/kg), and east- southeast flow steering storms and outflow boundaries they lay out inland into the Florida Parishes and southern MS into the late afternoon. Coverage will remain more isolated to scattered like it has been the last couple of days as the suppressive, higher mid-level heights keep mid-level lapse rates weak and lower mid- level RH keeping updrafts skinny and weaker. Mid-level RH values will gradually increase in association with a passing weak upper trough in the central Gulf following the periphery of the sprawling 597dam ridge over the eastern CONUS tonight. This will give a boost to the typical diurnally driven marine convection overnight and will transition into a more of a traditional summer day as daytime heating encourages shower and storm development by midday which then continues to spread inland through the late afternoon. Coverage will remain more scattered in nature so PoPs are still not as high as what was once advertised, but this will be the highest chance of rain since last Thursday for the area. This surge in mid-level moisture will continue into Monday night keeping things quite muggy and miserable. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Tuesday continues to have the highest PoPs of the forecast period as this deeper moisture continues to promote shower and storm activity following the typical diurnal cycles of the summer regime between marine and land. Thereafter, another punch of much drier air will loop around the southern periphery of the ridge along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday and Thursday leading to much more suppressed afternoon rain chances once again and also allowing high temperatures to start creeping back above average and could flirt with heat advisory criteria again. By the end of the week, the general consensus among model guidance members is that the eastern CONUS ridging will gradually breakdown, but there remains uncertainty on exactly how quickly this occurs. We'll likely continue to see quite a bit of variability in the Friday through Sunday timeframe until it's resolved whether an upper trough is going to cut-off underneath the weakening ridge and enhance rain chances over our area again and cool us off, or we stay warmer and drier. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 VFR is mostly anticipated through the overnight and into the morning. There is a weak fog signal for MCB, but this should remain fairly shallow and will dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, generally light southeasterly flow will continue through today. There will be another window for convection later this afternoon...covered this and potential lower VIS/CIGs with PROBs for now. (Frye) && .MARINE... Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Easterly to southeasterly winds at 15 knots or less are expected throughout the forecast period while we stay positioned on the southwest flank of the Bermuda High over the southwest Atlantic. Showers and storms are more likely than on previous days on Monday and Tuesday with the passage of a weak easterly wave. A few of these storms could be strong and cause significant wind shifts, high winds and seas, frequent lightning, and waterspouts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 93 72 92 72 / 30 20 40 20 BTR 94 74 93 75 / 40 20 50 20 ASD 93 73 92 74 / 30 10 40 20 MSY 93 79 92 79 / 30 10 40 20 GPT 91 75 91 76 / 20 20 40 30 PQL 93 73 93 73 / 30 20 40 30 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TJS LONG TERM....TJS AVIATION...RDF MARINE...TJS