915 FXUS61 KCAR 221011 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 611 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weather disturbance will cross the region early this morning. A warm upper ridge of high pressure will build across the area through early next week. A cold front will move across the area Tuesday night followed by high pressure Wednesday into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 6:10 AM Update...Showers are progressing into the area with moderate to heavy rain in the west and lighter rain just beginning to reach the east. Latest mesoscale models shows significant rain move across through mid to late morning, then sliding east of the region late morning. Forecast remains on track. Previous discussion... A small shortwave associated with a mesoscale convective complex riding over the top of the hot Midwestern ridge will slide east, southeast across our region this morning. Precipitation associated with this system will split between an area of quasi- stratiform rain and embedded thunder moving across our region, mostly over the north, and a line of thunderstorms diving southeast into the more unstable air down toward New York state and Southern New England. The line of thunder moving toward Southern New England may deplete some of the inflow moisture feeding into the system up here in the north. However, enough dynamics should remain over the north to bring up to a half to three quarters of an inch of rain this morning before the system continues east into New Brunswick this afternoon. Drier air will follow bringing partial clearing across the area later this afternoon. Surface high pressure will build over the area tonight. This will bring a mostly clear night. However, a cool damp layer of air beneath warming aloft will likely allow patch fog to form overnight in the calm air. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Light and variable winds will start off our Monday morning with CWA in between systems. Low pressure will be heading toward the Maritimes with another low pressure system heading into Ontario from the Prairie Provinces. A warm front will be just to our north Monday afternoon with showers remaining to our north during the day before possibly sagging into the St. John Valley in the evening. High temperatures on Monday will warm into the lower-middle 80s for inland locations outside of the coast. Dewpoints will take awhile to recover during the day, only rising into the middle 60s late in the day. This will keep heat indices in the lower 90s at max heating and preclude the need for a Heat Advisory for Monday. Apparent temps have dropped over the past several days and am fairly confident that interior areas will see manageable heat indices. However it will still be hot, ranging anywhere from 8-10 degrees above normal. Very little relief is expected on Monday night. Hires guidance is beginning to show a line of storms developing on nose of LLJ Monday evening just to our north and eventually moving acrs nrn zones overnight. However, timing differences are apparent along with how far south this line of convection moves Monday night. Have continued with slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over nrn Aroostook Monday night until confidence increases. By 12z Tuesday CWA looks to be in the warm sector with cold front to the northwest and located along the St. Lawrence Seaway. Strong warm advection will bring temperatures up into the 90s over inland locations. Dewpoints will rise sharply into the u60s/lower 70s in southerly flow, leading to heat indices climbing above 105 from the Dover-Foxcroft area south into the Bangor Region and into portions of interior Downeast. Will expand Extreme Heat Watch into central Washington County. Cold front will be moving through the area in the afternoon and with hot temps and high dewpoints, CAPES likely to climb to between 2000- 3000 J/kg with Hail CAPE favorable for large hail in any storms. 0- 6km shear looks to be marginal at the time the storms come through, increasing after fropa. Cannot rule out severe storms Tuesday afternoon, with the main threat being large hail mainly across the north. Capping inversion further to the south may prevent storms from developing along front. Fropa occurs Tuesday evening with storms winding down. H8 temps drop 10C acrs the north leading to mins in the lwr 50s acrs the North Woods as skies clear overnight. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds in behind cold front on Wednesday with sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures expected. Dewpoints will be much more tolerable and only in the 40s, with lower 50s Downeast. Showers will be possible for southern areas on Thursday with s/wvs zipping acrs in fast moving nw/zonal flow. How far north these showers make it will be determined by strength of Canadian high over Quebec. High pressure builds east on Friday with sfc low approaching from the Great Lakes Friday night. Max temps thru the end of the week will remain in the 70s for all areas. && .AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds and rain across the north into early afternoon. Some SW wind shear with winds around 50 kt at 2K ft this morning. Conditions improving to MVFR later this afternoon then VFR early this evening. VFR conditions tonight may lower to MVFR or IFR in some sites in fog late tonight. Winds south this morning becoming northwest this afternoon and calm tonight. VFR conditions across the south may briefly drop to MVFR through mid morning in showers. VFR conditions expected tonight, possibly lowering in fog late tonight. Winds light southerly this morning, westerly this afternoon, then northerly tonight, possibly becoming calm. SHORT TERM: Monday...Mainly VFR. Light winds in the morning becoming SW 5-10kts in the afternoon. Monday night...Mainly VFR, though cannot rule out showers and storms over northern Aroostook terminals early. IFR fog Downeast terminals late. SSW 5-10kts. Tuesday...VFR. Scattered storms northern terminals in the afternoon with brief IFR conditions and gusty winds. WSW 5-15kts gusting to 20kts. Tuesday night-Wednesday night...VFR. NW 5-15kts gusting to 20kts, becoming light NW Wednesday night. VFR...VFR with scattered showers and brief MVFR Downeast terminals afternoon. W 5-10kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will be up this morning for SW winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas 5 to 6 ft over the offshore waters. Winds will diminish and seas will subside tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas remain below small craft levels through the end of the week. Visibilities will be reduced in fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning as humid airmass remains over the waters. && .CLIMATE... Near record highs possible on Tuesday, June 24th: Site Forecast Record Caribou 91 93 (1955) Houlton 93 92 (1955) Millinocket 94 97 (1912) Bangor 97 93 (1995) && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for MEZ011-015>017-031. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...Buster Long Term...Buster Aviation...Bloomer/Buster Marine...Bloomer/Buster Climate...