435 FXUS62 KILM 202336 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 736 PM EDT Fri Jun 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening cold front will dissipate over the coast into this weekend. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U.S. this weekend with a warming trend into early next week. Increased heat risk is possible until mid next week when rain chances may return. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... The front looks to stall along the coast tonight into Saturday morning. This could enhance the chance for showers and an isolated storm despite the subsidence/dry air behind the front through the rest of this afternoon. The main issue for tonight will then be possible fog formation, but it might be heavily influenced by whether we get decent rainfall or not. For now only have patchy fog mentioned in the forecast, primarily away from the coast. Saturday then looks very typical of summer as the front looks to diffuse during the day. Isolated shower/storm chances will remain low and with the afternoon sea breeze. Lows in the lower 70s with highs in the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Mid to upper ridge will build over the region with steady height rises. Sunday should fall short of any Heat Advisory thresholds, but temps will make it into the 90s inland of the beaches. May see a few higher clouds ride down in the northerly flow or some flat cu develop, but otherwise, plenty of dry air and subsidence will maintain increasingly hot weather with no mentionable chc of pcp Sat night through Sun night. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The heat is on! Strong ridge builds to the north and drops down over the Carolinas with H5 heights reaching 597 dam, peaking Tues. High temps will be in the mid 90s on Mon, reaching the upper 90s through midweek with lows in the 70s. Heat Advisory criteria should be reached on Mon and may see Heat Warning thresholds met midweek with excessive heat increasing the risk to extreme levels across portion of the area through Thurs as hot daytime highs will be followed by warm nighttime lows, without much relief. Models show potential for some convection upstream midweek to move into or near the forecast area, but confidence is low with such strong ridging aloft. && .AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence in VFR this evening before light to calm winds develop and potential for fog increases overnight, especially for ILM/CRE. MVFR/IFR visibility possible for all sites, but IFR most likely to occur at ILM (lingering low level moisture from afternoon showers) and CRE (proximity to intracoastal waterway). Time frame for all terminals is 09Z-13z with CRE/ILM expected to hold onto visibility restrictions a bit longer. Some potential for brief IFR/MVFR from isolated showers and/or thunderstorms Saturday after 17Z, but confidence is low. A sea breeze will develop and the remains of the front will still be in the region, but ridging aloft will already be in the process of strengthening, which would tend to suppress storm development. Coverage is apt to be very limited, IF any storms develop, so for now have chosen to not carry SHRA or TSRA in the TAFs. Extended Outlook...VFR. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions. Light SW winds will become onshore with the sea breeze in the afternoon, speeds increasing to ~10 kts. Convection should be regulated to the Gulf Stream so have low POPs around 20nm out in case these move into our coastal waters. Seas 1-3 ft. Saturday night through Wednesday...A return flow around high pressure to our south should shift winds from southerly to a more offshore flow but remaining very light, mainly less than 10 kts. The sea breeze each afternoon should produce a slight uptick near shore. Seas will remain less than 3 ft with a slightly longer period SE swell mixing in. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels will trend upwards as we approach the new moon on Wed. Coastal flooding will be possible during evening high tides along the lower Cape Fear River in the vicinity of downtown Wilmington through next week. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...III MARINE...RGZ/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...