465 FXUS62 KILM 200139 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 939 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will increase tonight into Friday due to a slowly passing cold front. A strong ridge of high pressure will then build in over the eastern U.S. this weekend with a warming trend into early next week. Increased heat risk is possible until mid next week where rain chances may return. && .UPDATE... The impressive convective line that developed upstate this afternoon has largely dissipated, except for the portion of the line well to the north. There have been a few echos pop up on radar on the western fringes of the forecast area in the last hour. These appear to be along the leading edge of a weak surface trough ahead of the actual front coupled with a bit of enhancement from some weak 5h shortwaves. Given the unstable environment, even with the loss of heating and decreasing surface based instability, not a shock to see a few storms develop. Not expecting a lot of development the next 1-2 hours, but as the trough moves east-northeast into areas with slightly higher SBCAPE values (based on latest sfc analysis and CAMs) would expect storms to maintain and possibly increase in coverage from around midnight through the early morning hours of Fri before moving offshore in the 0300-0500 window. Based on CAPE values think NC portions of the forecast area will tend to be favored once the current ongoing convection in Marlboro County shifts north. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Very strong instability has developed across the area this afternoon, with the SPC mesoanalysis page even showing a narrow zone of 4500 J/Kg of SBCAPE in the Cape Fear region. The sea breeze appears to be about 4200 ft deep, which is close to but just shy of our LFC. Not unlike yesterday then deep convection should have trouble developing this afternoon-though a few shallower showers are possible. This changes this evening into the early part of tonight. Storms that are currently firing in the upstate region of the Carolinas will be translating east with the mean flow. As they do they will increasingly benefit from shortwave impulses also coming in from the west. CAMs have struggled today to see how this plays out here at the coast, but the trend has defiantly been towards more active. This seems logical given the extreme instability currently in place-shouldn't be in a hurry to diminish with daytime heating. Rain chances increase (quickly?) west of I-95 perhaps as early as 00Z, with a quick translation to the coast within 2-3 hours. Severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts appears possible if not likely. Weakening front drops into the area early tomorrow leading to less breezy of a day while a dip in the dewpoint brings a break in these near 100 heat indices especially inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A front will be off the coast Friday night with low shower/storm chances at the coast. The front looks to stall into Saturday where we maintain shower/storm chances starting at the coast and then expanding inland in the afternoon with the sea breeze. The stalled front may be dragged inland by high pressure to our west. Mostly dry conditions should then settle in for Saturday night. Highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The main focus for the long term will be increasing temperatures and the possible need for prolonged Heat Advisories next week. A strong mid-level ridge will build overhead with a warming trend through early next week. Highs will firmly be in the 90s with hottest conditions looking like Tuesday right now, where we could see highs of 100F in some spots. Highs at the coast should remain near 90. Highs should start to improve towards mid next week. In terms of rain, some isolated activity along the sea breeze may remain possible into Sunday as PWATs recover due to low pressure passing by to the north. A wave of enhanced moisture looks to wrap around into the area as it moves down the coast from the north, with high pressure holding fast to our west. Mostly dry conditions then hold for the rest of the long term period with a bit more uncertainty towards mid next week. A low to the north may push another round of moisture into the area bringing rain chances back towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR continues at all terminals this evening with convection to the west weakening considerably during the last hour or so. The expectation was these storms would affect the inland terminals 00Z-04Z and the coastal terminals slightly later than that. This now appears less likely, but still could see some storms move in from the northwest late tonight as a pre-frontal trough drops into the area. Convergence along the trough may be enough to generate storms given the abundant instability. Storms would bring brief ceiling and visibility restrictions, but confidence is low given the lack of activity to the west and the poor handling of this convection by the bulk of the "skillful" high resolution CAMs. Breezy southwest winds continue for much of tonight before northerly winds develop with the arrival of the trough around daybreak. Gradient behind the trough is weak with winds remaining under 10 kt Fri. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible along the coast Fri afternoon with coastal terminals potentially seeing brief flight restrictions 18Z-00Z. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly through Sat, with building high pressure squelching convection early next week. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Southwesterly gradient a bit pinched between Bermuda High and cold front approaching from the NW. Gusts have stayed sub-advisory and save for about a 2 hr window centered upon 03Z at which time a small 925mb jet crosses the area they should continue to do so. Veering slated for later tonight as weakening frontal boundary approaches, followed by decreasing wind speeds. Easterly swell is minimal, largely staying offshore, so the 4-5 second wind wave will continue to dominate. Friday Night through Tuesday...Prolonged benign marine conditions with mostly dry conditions from the weekend onwards under high pressure. W to SW winds AOB 10 kts will become onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...III NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...III MARINE...MBB/LEW