303 FXUS62 KILM 101729 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 130 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will slowly move to the coastal Carolinas by Wednesday and stall over the area. The stationary front moves northward on Thursday as high pressure builds into the area with warm and humid conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day. && .UPDATE... Some minor changes to sky and pop this morning to reflect latest satellite and radar trends and new guidance. Generally, expanded pops south and east a little earlier than previously forecast. Going Small Craft for northern waters will be allowed to expire at 10 AM. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front will be stalled just to our west/northwest with a trough pushing in aloft later in the day. Activity should be focused inland during the afternoon, roughly paralleling I-95, but it's hard to say if coverage will be much higher than scattered. Headed into the evening and nighttime, a mid-level trough will push through aloft with a quick shot of increased vorticity. There's still some uncertainty with this, but activity should shift towards the coast and over the waters, with enough instability lingering from the afternoon to support an isolated severe threat due to damaging wind gusts. Have tried to increase POPs where/when I have most confidence, but as it has been for the past couple days mesoscale properties might throw a wrench in things. Otherwise, SW winds will be gusty like they have been, particularly in the afternoon. Should see more clouds than sun, but with most of the rain inland during peak heating hours, have warmed highs at the coast slightly. Highs largely in the mid 80s with some spots hitting upper 80s. The front doesn't look to make a full passage before bouncing back north, and clouds/rain will be ongoing so lows should be roughly uniform across the area, near 70. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The 500 mb trough over the eastern 1/3 of the United States will continue to lift out as high pressure builds over the region. At the surface, a front will stall along the Carolina coast. This boundary will slowly dissipate as a surface ridge builds into the area. The deep moisture will be limited on Wednesday but will increase as the precipitable water reaches values over 2", beginning on Thursday. The synoptic scale lift will be weak, but afternoon instability and low-level mesoscale forcing will provide an environment that will produce a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. With the deeper moisture, the chance will increase on Thursday. Highs are expected to be around 90 inland and the mid-80s at the beaches. Lows will be around 70 inland and lower 70s at the beaches on Wednesday night and a few degrees warmer on Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid-level ridging will dominate over the Carolinas Friday and Saturday, and a trough will move over the area Sunday into Monday. The average 300-700 mb stream flow shows a clockwise flow off the southeast coast. This flow brings in the 2" precipitable water over the region on the western periphery of this high pressure. Precipitation chances will increase by the weekend and early next week. Maximum temperatures are expected to be around 90 inland and the mid to upper 80s along the beaches. The lows are expected to range from the lower 70s inland to the mid-70s at the coast. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ongoing convection and remnant rain will affect the terminals for the next two to three hours with brief restrictions. There will likely be a lull in activity afterward but confidence is somewhat low in convection affecting individual terminals through the remainder of the valid taf period. Water vapor imagery shows abundant dry air over much of the region which could limit storms to isolated to scattered regime after current convection ends. Overall, looking at a mainly VFR 24 hour period outside showers and storms. Also could be stratus inland again tonight but confidence is low in that attm. Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent thunderstorms are possible through Sunday. && .MARINE... Through tonight, a cold front will be stalled just to our west/northwest with a trough pushing in aloft. SW winds will be 10- 15 kts gusting ~20 kts. Showers and storms should be more focused inland during the day/afternoon, but the trough aloft could focus showers/storms more towards the coast and over the waters. Isolated storms could be strong or severe, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Seas will be 4-5 ft during the day relaxing to ~3 ft overnight. Wednesday through Saturday, a cold front just inland will shift northward on Thursday as high pressure builds over the coastal waters through the forecast period. Winds will be southwest around 10 knots through the period. Wave heights will be 2 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...31 NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...31 MARINE...ILM