388 FXUS65 KTFX 081457 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 857 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Benign and not too warm today, though wildfire smoke will persist. - Trending much warmer for Monday, with wildfire smoke slowly diminishing in the evening. - Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday onward across the region, with some thunderstorms on the stronger side. && .UPDATE... Morning satellite imagery shows just some scattered clouds across Gallatin county trailing from a weather disturbance exiting to the east. An extensive area of haze is evident across much of north- central and central MT, which has been transported south from wildfires in northern BC and AB in the cyclonic NW flow around an upper level low centered over southern MB this morning. Surface high pressure and continued northwesterly flow across the region today will likely maintain the overall hazy conditions with improvement beginning as the upper level flow turns more westerly on Monday. Otherwise, we remain on track for a warm and dry day today with temperatures close to or slightly above seasonal averages with breezy northwest winds this afternoon, primarily across eastern portions of north-central MT. Hoenisch && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 516 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: A ridge across the Pacific NW extending northward into BC will slump southeastward toward the Northern Rockies today. The result will be for a largely benign day. The only caveat will be for wildfire smoke, which looks to linger through the day today and into Monday. Temperatures trend warmer for Monday as a more broad area of ridging across the west becomes the dominant feature. Latest high resolution smoke guidance does keep smoke around into Monday, which would lead to some uncertainty as to exactly how warm the region trends. Upper flow across the region heading into Tuesday largely remains zonal, but becomes less anti-cyclonic in nature. Combine the warm surface temperatures with surface moisture sneaking in from the east across the region, and showers and thunderstorms re-enter the forecast. There looks to be sufficient instability and shear to support stronger thunderstorms, mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front and across Central Montana. Heading into Wednesday and toward the weekend, upper level troughing becomes favored across the Pacific Northwest. This would develop a persistent southwest flow aloft across the region. Several waves ejecting from this troughing will promote additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday toward the weekend. The setup at the surface remains similar compared to Tuesday, with better surface moisture being advected in from the east. Upper level flow does look to increase a bit over this timeframe. Without getting too much into the specifics, this pattern is one that would be conducive toward more organized thunderstorm activity. That said, it is far too early to nail down timing or location of any stronger thunderstorms. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main source of uncertainty in the forecast is Wednesday into the weekend. Guidance has not been consistent in the timing of the ejecting waves in the Pacific NW troughing, which leads to lower confidence in how many severe weather opportunities will develop. Should these waves pass across the region in the afternoon and early evening, it favor more impactful thunderstorms. Otherwise the greatest uncertainty is in the near-term with respect to the smoke and how quickly it exits. Latest guidance keeps the smoke around through the day Monday. A more dense and persistent smoke would result in a lower confidence temperature forecast for Monday. -AM && .AVIATION... 08/12Z TAF Period With upper level ridging building into North Central and Southwestern Montana, expect skies to be mainly clear of clouds with generally light winds (save for some gusts to 25 kts or so at KLWT). Main concern will be some smoky haze across the region, but for now have kept visibility at P6SM and did not put any HZ or FU into the TAFs at this time, as visibility should generally remain above 6SM. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 77 51 91 54 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 77 47 89 51 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 81 52 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 77 46 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 73 35 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 76 47 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 77 45 93 54 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 69 46 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls