770 FXUS65 KVEF 062023 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 123 PM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Another day of terrain-based isolated showers and thunderstorms as an elongated trough over the region taps into persistent anomalous moisture. Coverage and intensity will continue to decrease each afternoon through the weekend as the region dries out and temperatures climb. Expect above-average temperatures, dry conditions, and afternoon breeziness each day next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday. An elongated trough stretched across the Desert Southwest will close off of the southern California Coast today as it ejects a vorticity maxima across the Mojave Desert. Despite south-to-north drying trends, anomalous moisture (100-200% of normal) remains across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin. Coupled with typical daytime heating and orographic mechanisms, we can expect afternoon terrain- driven convection yet again today. CAPE values are about half what they were yesterday and moisture is actively decreasing across the area. For these reasons, both coverage and intensity of storms today will be notably diminished compared to yesterday. That said, especially over Lincoln County today, cannot rule out isolated flash flooding from training storms or particularly strong storms. Additionally, DCAPE across Inyo, San Bernardino, Clark, and Mohave counties ranges from 1200 to 1500 J/kg, so we can expect erratic gusty winds from strong storms that develop. A ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will begin to nose northward through the Desert Southwest this weekend, which will help clear out left over moisture. That said, there will still be PWATs 50-150% of normal across portions of the southern Great Basin that will allow for additional terrain-based convection across Lincoln County Saturday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday. Today is the coolest day of the forecast period. Temperatures will climb through the weekend and start of next week as a ridge of high pressure noses up from northern Mexico. Monday is currently slated to be the hottest day of the forecast period, with temperatures ranging 8 to 12 degrees above seasonal normals. Expect widespread "Moderate" HeatRisk (Level 2 on a scale from 0 to 4), with "Major" HeatRisk in the lower desert valleys. This level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Otherwise, the region will become sandwiched between a trough dropping down from the Pacific Northwest and a growing ridge of high pressure centered over northern Mexico. This will increase pressure gradients aloft, which will result in gusty southwesterly winds each afternoon through the forecast period. Winds should remain sub- advisory, but will be a nuisance for outdoor events involving light- weight items. As this trough approaches our region and drops heights aloft, temperatures will gradually decrease through the week heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Isolated thunderstorms return to the Clark County Mountains to the west of the Las Vegas Valley once again this afternoon, with slim chances of activity meandering over area terminals. Expect similar activity across the Mormon Mesa and Daggett corridors. Activity will rapidly wane after sunset. Outside of storm influence, winds should remain below 10 kts through the TAF period with clearing skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and southeastern California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Isolated showers and thunderstorms return to the higher terrain once again today, with best chances across the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave Desert. Slim chances of activity meandering over area terminals. Winds will remain generally light, with speeds below 10 kts through the TAF period. The exception will be KDAG, where breezy west winds will pick up after sunset with speeds between 10 and 15 kts. Expect clearing skies overnight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Soulat For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter