747 FXUS64 KHGX 030811 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 The next week brings us *both* kinds of Southeast Texas summer: more sunny, very hot, and humid; and also a bit cloudier with better potential for showers and storms, hot, and oppressively humid! Some thoughts we're thinking about the week to come: - The hotter pattern with less rain potential (but not none!) should dominate most of the time through this weekend. However, late Tuesday night and Wednesday will be a key exception. Storms may manage to push in from the north in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, and remains from that activity looks to help boost afternoon shower and storm initiation. - The threat of heat during this early stretch also look to drift upwards into the weekend. Whatever tool you choose: heat index, wet bulb globe temp, HeatRisk, it all indicates a need to pay attention to the impact of the heat on us at the end of the week. - Come Monday and the new work week, we'll shift into the type of summer that is maybe not quite as hot, but also looks to be more humid, with greater coverage of afternoon showers and storms providing our best shot for heat relief. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday Night) Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025 I don't really know if there's a better way to describe the short term portion of the forecast other than simply saying "June". Today looks to be the warmer, drier day of the two. We find ourselves briefly under a shortwave ridge that whose axis should make its way over us today. This will open us up to a little vort max currently over West Texas to make its way through the pattern as it gets ejected from an upper trough over Colorado and shoots through out way. I don't anticipate that this little blob of vorticity to amount to a whole lot given the general ridginess of the environment over Southeast Texas today, but I do expect that it will probably highlight where the best channel of moisture is today, driven by low level onshore flow. Look for an isolated smattering of showers and maybe even a thunderstorm, most likely along the western border of our forecast area, stretching from Matagorda Bay northward. Tonight into Wednesday is where things get briefly interesting, along with a bit of a taste of what things should look more like early next week. But more on that in the long term. In this timeframe, we'll be casting our eyes to north as we so often do in the late spring and early summer. There is every expectation that a collection of storms will initiate off the dryline and/or a cold front making its way slowly from Oklahoma to North Texas. That front will probably be accomplished to reach the northern border of our area, but what has a better chance of pushing in is that complex of storms once it manages to detach from the boundaries and ride its cold pool south/southeastward. For now...much of the CAM guidance is fairly sour on this complex of storms surviving into Southeast Texas, with it largely dying off over our area. However, this is a setup in which numerical guidance is notoriously poor. For parametrized models it is no surprise as it is driven entirely by mesoscale interactions. But even the CAMs seem to struggle with this, as we got a lovely reminder of last week when a line that was supposed to die before reaching College Station ended up driving all the way to the Gulf coast. So...I just went ahead and put up slight chance PoPs for late tonight and Wednesday morning for the large majority of the area, and getting as high as about 30 percent around College Station. Now, even if the line itself does die out and never drops a bit of rain in the area, it will likely make itself known tomorrow afternoon. At this point, the upper trough powering the synoptic machine will be ejecting, but looks to drag down enough that it should help support lift, if we can get any vertical motion started. And with an outflow boundary from the storm complex expected to be hanging around, it should provide a decent focus for storm initiation Wednesday afternoon, especially if we get some fun collisions with the seabreeze and/or outflow from the day's new convection. So while today may struggle to get daytime showers and storms going, I expect we should see more scattered activity on Wednesday. Temperature-wise, there's not much change to expect. This shortwave ridge isn't all that impressive and might be a bit mistimed, so today and tomorrow should continue to see us get highs around or a little above 90 degrees inland (more mid to upper 80s at the coast) with overnight lows in the 70s inland and around 80 degrees at the Gulf shore. If anyone is going to fail to accomplish that, it's because you won the rain lottery on Wednesday. Congrats! && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 The long term period can be summarized with just two words...hot and hazy. The heat really builds in going into the weekend, but on Thursday we do still reach the low 90s areawide along with a slight chance for isolated showers/storms along the sea breeze in the afternoon. On Friday, we'll get a plume of Saharan dust moving in from the Gulf, so expect the skies to be hazy through the weekend. On top of that, temperatures will be a bit warmer as we top out in the low to mid 90s. The warming trend continues through the weekend with upper 90s expected by Sunday. This comes courtesy of a ~592+ dam mid-level high that builds in over northern Mexico towards the end of the work week combined with 850mb temperatures approaching the 90th percentile over the weekend. The increased subsidence will lead to a decreasing trend in rain chances and as you saw...an increasing trend in temperatures. Rain chances don't exactly drop to zero, but they will be on the low side. Heat indices will be well into the triple digits and may potentially flirt with the Heat Advisory threshold towards the end of the week. If you're curious about the low temperatures, they're equally as miserable...how do low temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s sound? Yeah...not great. The mid-level high does look to retrograde to the west a bit late in the weekend into early next week which would allow for embedded disturbances to sneak their way in and bring back some more noticeable chances for showers/storms. Until then though...it's gonna be hot and hazy. It is June after all! Batiste && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions prevail as southeasterly winds continue on a gradual decreasing trend through the overnight hours. MVFR ceilings may make an appearance at CLL and could extend further southeastward, but the highest confidence for now remains just for CLL. Patchy fog has made an appearance the past few nights at CXO and SGR, so keeping with a persistence forecast for decreased visibilities generally after 09Z. VFR conditions return by 15Z/Tuesday with breezy southeasterly winds prevailing. Expect sustained winds of 10-15 kt with occasional gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Some isolated showers/storms could develop near the western terminals (CLL/SGR/LBX) in the afternoon, but confidence of this remains low enough for now to keep it out of this set of TAFs. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1128 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Light onshore flow and low seas continues to prevail, but we will see the onshore flow strengthen late Tuesday into early Wednesday. This may lead to a brief period of caution flags, but it will be borderline. Light onshore flow will prevail through the rest of the forecast period with chances for showers/storms returning around midweek. The persistent onshore flow will lead to an increased risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches around and after midweek. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return around midweek as well. A plume of Saharan dust will move in towards the end of the work week and last into the weekend leading to hazy conditions. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 75 89 74 / 10 10 40 10 Houston (IAH) 90 77 92 76 / 10 0 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 87 80 / 10 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Luchs LONG TERM....Batiste AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Batiste