121 FXUS64 KLIX 250051 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 751 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 746 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Analysis of the theta e gradient and the ongoing trajectory of a line of thunderstorms pushing through southern Mississippi this evening, confidence has increased that this convection will move into portions of coastal Mississippi including Pearl River County and Harrison and Jackson Counties over the next 2 to 3 hours. The line of convection will be gradually weakening as daytime heating wanes, and the threat of additional severe thunderstorm development along the line is decreasing rapidly. However, gusty winds, lightning, and locally heavy downpours will be a concern as the line moves into coastal Mississippi this evening. Given the increased confidence in the trajectory of the line, have increased PoP for coastal Mississippi through 10 pm. PG && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Upper ridging centered from Texas to Nebraska this afternoon, with a trough extending from Montana to near Los Angeles. At the surface, high pressure extended from Lake Michigan to the eastern Gulf. A stationary front was near Interstate 20 with a line of thunderstorms to the north of that front across the northern half of Mississippi into northeast Louisiana. Locally, isolated showers and storms were providing brief cooling in a few areas. Most areas were seeing temperatures in the mid and upper 80s, but a few locations will top out in the lower 90s. Upper ridging will gradually shift eastward and be centered over the Gulf on Monday morning. The frontal boundary to our north isn't likely to make much, if any, further southward progress over the next 36 hours. The isolated convection currently over and around the local area should dissipate around sunset. However, there is a non-zero threat that the storms over northeast Louisiana could conceivably reach the local area if they become cold pool dominated as noted by a few mesoscale model solutions. That's not currently accounted for in the forecast, but we'll continue to monitor. Sunday is likely to look a lot like today weather-wise, including temperatures, with not much more than isolated to widely scattered storm coverage and high temperatures within a few degrees of 90. Any storms that do develop, will likely dissipate around sunset. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday night) Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 As we progress into the early part of the week, ridging becomes suppressed further south over the Gulf. Moisture levels increase across the area with precipitable water values around 1.7 to 1.9 inches Monday through Wednesday, then slightly drier Thursday and Friday. Shortwaves moving across the middle Mississippi River Valley will combine with the moist airmass and an approaching frontal boundary to trigger periods of showers and storms across the area. Most of the precipitation is expected to occur during the diurnally favored hours from late morning into early evening, with the highest probabilities over northern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with a few storms, and some storms could become strong, but higher probabilities of severe storms or excessive rainfall aren't currently expected. It currently appears that the frontal boundary may move into the northern Gulf at the end of the week, similar to the ECMWF solution, potentially bringing cooler and drier (comparatively, for late May/early June) weather next weekend. Overall, high temperatures are going to be driven by the timing of convective development on a particular day. There are no strong targets of opportunity, so accepted the NBM temperature values. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Most of the afternoon convection along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor including KMSY and KNEW has dissipated. However, there is a cluster of storms to the northwest of KMCB that could reach KMCB between 00z and 02z that could produce IFR or lower visibilities and wind gusts in excess of 30 knots. Current trajectories would indicate these storms would remain north of KHDC and KASD, and likely dissipate before reaching KGPT. Potential for some flight restrictions at KMCB prior to sunrise, mainly due to low ceilings. Expect MVFR ceilings for a couple hours at several terminals between 14z-17z as the cumulus field develops tomorrow morning. Have limited PROB30 mention tomorrow afternoon to KBTR and KMCB, where the best moisture content and instability are expected, but threat is non-zero at remaining terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025 Light gradient winds will generally rule most of the forecast period the main concern during the forecast period will be thunderstorm development, producing localized higher winds and seas. Threats will be greater over the protected waters (lakes and sounds), especially from Monday onward. Do not expect any prolonged periods of winds above 15 knots. The only other thing of mention is that we are beginning to get more and more into the Summer setup so we will see that nocturnal jet begin to set up most nights east of the MS delta. The biggest issue is that small area around Breton and Chandeleur Sounds and south of MS Sound will likely see a bump in winds of 3-5 kts compared to much of the coastal waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 71 91 72 90 / 50 30 10 50 BTR 74 92 75 92 / 10 30 0 40 ASD 73 91 73 90 / 10 20 0 20 MSY 76 91 77 92 / 10 20 0 20 GPT 75 88 75 87 / 10 10 10 20 PQL 72 89 72 89 / 20 10 0 20 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...RW MARINE...RW