815 FXUS61 KBGM 290645 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 245 AM EDT Sat Mar 29 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will be arriving this evening, spreading from southwest to northeast as a warm front lifts north across the area. Showers will continue through the weekend and into early next week as multiple waves and a cold front move through. Summer-like temperatures will be possible this weekend and into early next week before cooling back to seasonable conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 1215 PM Update... Just a few minor changes were needed to temps and winds to better match the latest observations. Otherwise, the current forecast is doing well. 1015 PM Update... Latest 00z HRRR, 3km NAM and 23z NBM are starting to come into better agreement on the frontal position through the day on Saturday. It now appears the front nudges north to about Penn Yan, Ithaca, Tully and Cooperstown early to mid-morning, then slowly retreats south midday into the afternoon. By around 3PM the sharp front will likely be draped along the northern borders of the NY southern tier counties from Steuben east to Broome and Delaware counties. Places such as Penn Yan, Watkins Glen, Ithaca, Cortland, and Sherburne are forecast to see rapid temperature drops, possibly even into the 40s or lower 50s on the other side of the front by late afternoon. Made some relatively minor temperature tweaks to the official forecast with this latest data. Syracuse, Utica and Rome are now forecast to be stuck in the 40s most of the daytime hours and could perhaps just touch 50 for a high. Added in some fog later tonight through Saturday and Saturday evening north of the warm frontal boundary. Rest of the forecast remains on track. 630 PM Update... Warm front is approaching from the west this evening, bringing periods of rain with it. The rain will continue into the overnight hours, then lift northeast along the front. Rainfall amounts of up to a half inch are expected overnight...with a quarter inch or less from the NY southern tier down into NE PA. The warm front looks to stall near I-90 by daybreak as a few weak waves of low pressure ride eastward along it from southern Ontario. A very tricky, complex forecast for Saturday. Minor differences in the near term guidance, such as exact frontal boundary placement and timing of any frontal movement will make a huge difference in the sensible weather. The HRRR and near term NBM guidance seems to be dropping the front a bit further south on Saturday, possibly closer to the Twin Tiers, however was not ready to buy into that trend just yet, as the 3km NAM keeps it further north, and upstream obs suggest a further north frontal position (based on obs over lower Michigan and Southern Wisconsin this evening. There will be large differences on either side of the front. Along and north of the front Saturday will feature low clouds, showers and temperatures in the 40s to perhaps low 50s. Meanwhile just south of the front it will be partly sunny and very warm with temperatures in the upper 60s to low/mid-70s...and further south across the Wyoming Valley region it should warm into the upper 70s and lower 80s! The greatest uncertainty in the forecast is across the Twin Tiers, Susquehanna region and southern Finger Lakes. We will continue to monitor the latest trends in guidance and adjust the forecast as needed. 400 PM Update... Plenty of clouds will be around this evening with scattered showers expected to develop over the next few hours ahead of a warm front that will be lifting north across the area this evening. Showers will be spreading from southwest to northeast across the CWA. Some model guidance suggests there could be around 200 J/kg of MUCAPE late this evening and into the overnight hours around the northern Finger Lakes and toward the Mohawk Valley with sufficient shear, so a rumble of thunder can't be ruled out. The front is expected to stall out over north-central NY later tonight close to the NYS Thruway, which will lead to the shower activity becoming more concentrated north of the Southern Tier. Temperatures will be non-diurnal with lows occurring this evening as warm air is advected northward tonight and there will be a wide range in lows. Low temperatures north of the NYS Thruway will be in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, while the rest of the area bottoms out between the low 40s and low 50s before rising. The stalled frontal boundary across north-central NY looks to drift to the south later tomorrow morning and into the afternoon before again pushing northward toward tomorrow evening. As a result, portions of the Southern Tier and NE PA can start the day off largely dry before showers begin to develop to the south as the day goes on. There is also some modest amounts of instability showing up on most model guidance later tomorrow afternoon into the first part of tomorrow night, on average around 200-300 J/kg from the Southern Tier into NE PA and the southern Catskills with 25 to 35 knots of shear, so an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. There is some uncertainty as to how far south the front will drift which will make high temperatures a bit of a challenge. Areas well south of the front tomorrow, the Southern Tier into NE PA, are expected to reach the upper 60s to mid 70s, with some parts of the Wyoming Valley and Delaware River Valley in NE PA climbing into the upper 70s to even near 80 degrees! North of the Southern Tier is expected to be in the 60s, but again there is some uncertainty with the boundary placement, and then areas north of the Thruway will be much cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s. Scattered showers will continue tomorrow night, however, there may be a dry slot that tries to develop which could lead to showers tapering off for a time later tomorrow evening or during the overnight hours. Again there will be a wide range in low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s and low 40s north to the upper 40s to mid 50s south. Rainfall totals tonight through tomorrow night are expected to range from 0.25"-0.50" from the Twin Tiers northward to around Route 20 in CNY. From the I-90 corridor north there can be 0.50"-1.00" of rain with localized higher amounts, especially over Oneida County. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 245 AM Update... A warm front will lift north of the region Sunday night, with mild overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. All of Central NY and NE PA will be well within the warm sector of a low pressure system heading into Monday, resulting in Monday's high temperatures to be in the upper 60s to low 70s. A cold front then comes through the area Monday afternoon, bringing along rain showers and thunderstorms. Guidance continues to show a lack of instability, but does depict a high-sheared environment. For now, the main threat would be gusty to damaging winds for Monday, but we'll keep monitoring the trends in guidance through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 245 AM Update... After the passage of the cold front from Monday, Tuesday is left under northwest flow. Cooler air filtering from Canada and moving over Lake Ontario may produce from mixed snow and rain lake effect showers Tuesday morning. High pressure begins to build in Tuesday afternoon, cutting off any lake effect. The next system to watch will be approaching on Thursday. Similarly to the system approaching this upcoming Monday, our area remains in the warm sector for a bit before a cold front moves through Thursday, bringing rain showers. High pressure comes back around for Friday. High temperatures are mild for most days, except for Tuesday, which results from the passage of the cold front from Monday. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A band of rain showers is moving through the region. Due to a stalled front, rain showers will remain over SYR and RME for the majority of this TAF period, though early on, coverage will likely be scattered before becoming more steady later this morning. The front may drop south some and scattered showers will be possible at the rest of the central NY terminals but confidence was only high enough at ITH to include a tempo for now. AVP should remain far enough south to stay dry and remain VFR. At BGM and ELM, conditions will also be VFR though both locations will be on southern extent of expected MVFR ceilings. MVFR is expected at ITH. With the front stalled over SYR and RME, IFR conditions are expected at those terminals. Winds will pick up early this morning with peak gusts of 15 to 25 kts. This evening, winds become light and variable. Low-level wind shear will be possible until around 14z at most terminals. At 2000ft AGL, winds will be southwest to westerly with speeds of 45 to 50 kts. At SYR, winds will be calmer at around 30 kts and RME is not expected to see any low-level wind shear. Outlook... Sunday through Monday...Scattered showers and associated restrictions possible. Tuesday...Lingering restrictions possible early at CNY terminals, then becoming mainly VFR. Wednesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DK NEAR TERM...BTL/DK/MJM SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...BTL