344 FXUS61 KRLX 220723 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 323 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Turning windy with rain chances for northern areas today. Fire weather concerns again this afternoon. Additional rounds of showers Sunday and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM Saturday... A mix of clear skies and clouds has been crossing the area early tonight, but more solid cloud cover will move in heading towards the morning as a weak disturbance brings some spotty showers during the day today. What the system is likely to lack in rainfall or a shot of cold air it will make up for with the gusty winds that develop with and behind the front. S-SW'ly winds overnight will shift to W'ly winds by around midday, and become stronger. Sustained winds around 15 mph will be common across less sheltered lower elevation locations, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Winds will be stronger on the highest ridges, but gusts should stay below Wind Advisory criteria. We will need to stay vigilant for more fire weather concerns this afternoon and early evening, with MinRH values of 25-35 percent common across the lower elevations. The recent rains only briefly helped fuel moistures across the area, with yesterday's sunny and breezy conditions quickly bringing RAWS fuel moisture measurements down close to or even below critical thresholds. Winds today will be stronger, but are generally not forecast to get to Red Flag Warning criteria for most of the area, but we will coordinate with forestry and land use partners on messaging for today. Precip with this disturbance looks to be pretty limited in scope and amounts, and should generally be limited to just the northern part of the CWA. Hi-res guidance would suggest two waves of precip - one between daybreak and mid-morning moving across the northern tier of the CWA, and another in the early to mid-afternoon hours, which may focus more on the northeastern part of the CWA. QPF is under a tenth of an inch, even in the northern mountains, with more precip expected for PBZ's CWA. Some of the highest elevations may see snow showers, or a rain snow mix, but no accumulations are expected. Calming winds and clearing skies under high pressure will allow for a chilly night, with lows ranging from the mid-20s in the mountains to the low or mid-30s in the southwestern part of the CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... Key Points: * Elevated fire weather conditions possible Sunday afternoon * Much needed wetting rain expected Sunday night into Monday Traversing high pressure brings dry conditions to the area Saturday night in advance of the next disturbance on Sunday. Low temperatures will be on the chilly side, with mid 20s to mid 30s expected amid mostly clear skies and light flow. A warm front will lift north through the area on Sunday, mainly if not entirely dry, bringing a slight warmup w/ temperatures ~ 5 degrees warmer than on Saturday. An associated cold front will quickly push through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing SCT showers and perhaps ISO thunderstorms. In advance of this, breezy winds and low afternoon RH could result in slightly elevated fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon, but much of this will depend on when low-level moisture advection begins to overtake the area. Regardless, a much needed and wetting rain is expected area-wide Sunday night into Monday morning. The region quickly dries out on Monday amid breezy to gusty post-frontal CAA, with high temperatures returning to near normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM Friday... The long term period will be dominated by a mid-amplitude longwave trough across the eastern CONUS w/ embedded/weak shortwaves periodically impacting the region amid the rather progressive pattern. This results in periodic/light precipitation chances (rain lowlands, with snow showers possible in the mountains), but with significant timing/location uncertainty that is typical with the aforementioned pattern. Given such, PoPs have been capped at 30-50% throughout the period, with the best chance of precipitation currently being Tuesday night into Wednesday. The trough is progged to shift east late in the work week, resulting in a general warming trend across the area by Friday amid return flow. High temperatures will be approximately 5 degrees below normal Tuesday-Thursday, with a return to above normal by Friday. There could also be renewed fire weather concerns once the area dries out from Sunday night's rainfall. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 140 AM Saturday... VFR conditions should prevail through the period, as the weak wave passing to our north may not have enough low-level moisture to drop ceilings to MVFR in any shower activity. And any shower activity is fairly uncertain even now, with POPs mostly in the 25-45 percent range. So for now, decided to stick with the idea of handling any potential precip in PROB30 groups for the northern sites. Winds will start the period S-SW'ly for the rest of the night, but will eventually shift W'ly during the day tomorrow and will definitely pick up as the front crosses the area. Gusts of 20-25 knots are expected at lower elevations, and likely a bit stronger over the ridges. Did maintain some LLWS across much of the area over the first several hours of the TAF period, but as winds increase, the LLWS will diminish below thresholds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds will likely vary at times overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/22/25 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR conditions are possible late Sunday into Monday morning with showers. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...GW LONG TERM...GW AVIATION...FK