646 FXUS61 KBGM 131945 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 245 PM EST Wed Nov 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Thursday will see increasing clouds as high pressure pushes east of the region. Our western forecast area will have low chance for light rain showers late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. High pressure then builds back into the region for Friday and persists through much of this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update Canadian high pressure is centered over the region this afternoon with sunny skies, but cool temperatures. Most of the area will remain mostly clear tonight and good radiational cooling will send temperatures down into the upper teens and low 20s once again. High clouds arrive toward or after midnight across the western half of NY and this should prevent temperatures from falling further in those areas, so lows will be possibly 5 to 10 degrees warmer across our western forecast counties. Tomorrow will remain mostly dry with an increase of mid to upper level clouds from the west. There should be some filtered sunshine at times, especially east of I-81. Low pressure will track south of the area, but transfer it's energy to the coast and become a Miller B type system. This will take the bulk of the forcing out of play over our forecast area and not expecting much in the way of precipitation due to the stout dry airmass in place. Any chance for rain or snow showers will likely remain west of the I81 corridor. Further east, it looks to stay mainly dry for Syracuse, Binghamton, Scranton, Utica, Oneonta and surrounding locations. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 310 AM Update... A retrograding trough will prevent a shortwave moving in from the Great Lakes from making it into the northeast. With the overnight model runs continuing the trend of deflecting the incoming shortwave quicker into central PA, chances of precipitation were lowered and mostly kept to our western most zones in Steuben county down through western Luzerne county. With dry air advecting in from the north as the retrograding trough moves in, dew points Friday were lowered for areas east of I-81. The pressure gradient Friday has also been tightening up in recent runs so winds could be higher than forecast. With the near term also dry and not receiving a whole lot of rain with this last system, fine fuels will be drying back out and with low RH Friday afternoon, there will be concerns for fire spread once again. Saturday will be similar to Friday with breezy NW winds and low RH once again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 310 AM Update... The dry weather continues into the long term as we see mostly weak ridging to zonal flow through early next week. There is potential for a shortwave to move through Sunday night into Monday but with not much moisture transport into the region with the predominant low level NW flow, chances of precipitation are low and if there is precipitation, it does not look like much. Any passing shortwave would increase the winds so if anything, they would just increase fire weather concerns as fuels remain dry. There is potential by mid to late week that we could start to see a large scale pattern change to a more active pattern as ridging begins to try and build into the west coast and greater potential for the long wave trough to move into the central or eastern US. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure and VFR conditions expected through the period. Outlook... Thursday afternoon...Increasing mid and high level clouds around. High confidence. Thursday night...MVFR restrictions possible for our western terminals, with chances for light rain (ELM/ITH). Moderate confidence. Friday...Lower confidence forecast. Some lingering restrictions are possible, mainly at our western terminals; then becoming VFR later in the day or evening areawide. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Moderate to high confidence. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...AJG LONG TERM...AJG AVIATION...MPK