721 FXUS63 KGRR 170733 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 333 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warmer - Dry this weekend into early next week...rain chances Tues/Wed && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 - Dry and warmer Latest IR loop shows clear skies across the Mitten. High pressure was noted over the Ohio Valley and this will influence our weather for the next few days. the dome of high pressure will drift east through Friday and we'll begin to tap a southwest wind which will advect warmer air northward into the cwa. H8 temperatures near 6c today will increase to 12c by Friday afternoon. Surface temperatures will climb to the lower 60s under sunny skies today and mid 60s Friday. Normal highs are in the lower 60s. Comfortable conditions are expected with dewpoints in the 30s. Another chilly night is expected tonight. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s, which is a few degrees below normal. - Dry this weekend into early next week...rain chances Tues/Wed Dry weather will continue into the weekend as the pattern will remain fairly locked in. In general, ridging aloft will be present from Saturday through Monday. A southwest flow will be in place at the surface during the same time with gradually warming temperatures. 850mb temperatures rise from the lower teens C to the middle teens C from Saturday to Monday. High temperatures will respond as expected, nudging up a bit through the 70s each day. Given normal highs are in the upper 50s to around 60, we are looking at temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. An upper low in the plains in the Sunday and Monday time frame moves into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Chances for rain showers are in the forecast from Tuesday into Wednesday. This does not look to be a significant rainfall as surface dew points hold in the lower 50s and PWAT values barely reach 1.00 inch on Tuesday. A secondary shortwave moves in from the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday with an associated surface cold front. Chances for rain at this point are small, on the order of 20-40 percent. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Clear skies are expected through the 24 hour TAF period of 06Z THU to 06Z FRI. For that matter, we are anticipating VFR weather throughout as well. There is a small chance that a few places may see some patchy fog during the remainder of tonight, but the threat is too small at any one TAF site to include. Light southwest winds are expected today at 5-10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024 South winds will increase today as high pressure drifts east. As a result, waves will also increase. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 11 am today until 2 am Saturday. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ846>849. && $$ DISCUSSION...Duke/04 AVIATION...Duke MARINE...04