263 FXUS63 KFGF 021508 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1008 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical fire weather this afternoon southeastern North Dakota and portions of west central and northwest Minnesota. - Patchy frost is expected near the Canadian border tonight into Thursday morning. More widespread frost and even some freezing temperatures are possible Thursday night and Friday morning across much of the area. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Have a fairly flat zonal flow along the Canadian border this morning, with an upper level jet there as well. The regional radar shows a few spotty high level echoes across northwest Minnesota, mainly around the Lake of the Woods. A few stations up in that area have reported a light shower or sprinkle. This activity is moving rapidly to the east, so it should exit the FA in the next hour or so. At the surface, there is a low and cold front lying across the FA, which is providing for variable wind directions and a mix of speeds. As this front continues to push eastward, the wind directions should become a little more consistent from the northwest. Speeds will also increase by afternoon, and when combined with minimum humidities in the 20s percent range, will result in near critical fire weather conditions for portions of the FA. It looks like the 850mb cold advection is pretty decent this afternoon, especially across the southern half of the FA. So will be monitoring fire weather conditions throughout the day. UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Clouds may have retreated slightly northward but not by much. Still expecting the clouds to clear out by this evening. Winds should start gusting in the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 ...Synopsis... Clouds have moved in from the West Northwest and a clear area remains pretty much that I-94 corridor and south this morning creating a temperature gradient of cooler temperatures to our south and warmer temperatures up north because of the clouds. Only exception is Towner county in Devils Lake Basin which is consistently a cold spot this time of the year. Throughout the day clouds should start to lift Northeast and possibly give us some frost. The most likely areas to produce frost tonight is near the Canadian Border. However, if these clouds linger over them then frost may not occur. To reflect this I threw in 15 pops over the Northern portion of the Devils Lake Basin to put Patchy Frost in the grids. If the clouds move off throughout the day then Patchy frost will probably be expanded along the border. Then with the Surface high moving over us Thursday, I threw in 45 pops along and north of HWY2 to reflect the most likely area but may need to expand across our CWA tomorrow with the more efficient radiational cooling provided by the high pressure and clear skies. Fire weather issues... Fuels are curing with dewpoints in the 20s and 30's most of the area. THe low level jet angled towards the southeast have maintained a narrow corridor of 20 mph wind gust through the night over thief river, crookston, and even Bemidji. Wind direction will maintain a west to northwest direction at 20 mph through this evening across Eastern North Dakota and around 15 mph for West central Minnesota. Southeast North Dakota may see and occasional gust up to 30 mph with efficient mixing to bring near critical messaging for that area. Friday and into the weekend: A low pressure system comes across the southern portion of the Canadian Providences to give us our next probable precipitation chances. Current models so some disagreement with track of the system however the mean track brings it close enough that we may see some precipitation in our region. The big question will be how much dry air will be over us as this system passes by for us to have some precip reach the ground and how strong will the winds behind the frontal for possible fire weather concerns depending on if precip reaches the ground or not. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2024 Mid-level cloud cover continues to work to the east this morning, with broken to overcast conditions across most of the area. VFR ceilings prevail at all TAF sites through the period, with winds becoming more northwesterly by around midday. Gusts in the range of 20 to 25 knots are possible at all sites except KBJI, where gusts are not as likely. Overall, minimal impacts to aviation are expected. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...Lynch