252 FXUS64 KBRO 121735 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Mid-level ridging builds in over during the course of the day, allowing for a drier environment over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. The surface winds are expected to start off light and mostly from the east, but should overtime shift towards the southeast during the short term forecast period. Sunny conditions are expected for most of the region, with a few low-level clouds expected due to the influx of low-level moisture. As for the temperatures, the highs for today will continue to warm seeing parts of the region in the upper 90s and even reaching the triple digits. However, the high temperatures for tomorrow will continue to rise thus high temperatures for more areas will be in the triple digits. Heat indices for tomorrow are expected to be elevated and could perhaps require a Special Weather Statement or even a Heat Advisory. Finally, coastal hazards are starting to come down a bit. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Lower Texas Coast through the later part of the morning. Meanwhile, there is a moderate risk of rip currents on the beaches. However coastal conditions are expected to improve during the short term forecast period. | && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Weak ridging over Texas and a flat pressure field will contribute to mostly quiet, non-extreme weather. However, moisture derived from the Southwest Gulf will get pulled north and will contribute to non-negligible rain chances. The NBM brings a few showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday, with coverage increasing to scattered on Sunday and Monday before backing off to isolated on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be possible for some upper moisture from a tropical system in the Eastern Pacific to supplement area rain chances Sunday and Monday. As we head into next week, ridging and broad high pressure will build into South Texas, with continued low end shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly along the sea breeze. Temperatures will trend slightly above normal, and with enhanced relative humidity values heat index values may run in the 103 to 108 degree range. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all TAF locations through tonight. Brief periods of low clouds (MVFR) and fog are possible at KHRL, and opted to include a TEMPO from 10Z to 14Z to account for this potential. There is a non-zero potential for patchy fog at KMFE as well during this time. Otherwise, all sites should return to VFR by mid-morning tomorrow. Winds will remain light and variable, generally out of the southeast at 7 knots or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Today through Friday...Marine conditions are expected to be mostly favorable in the short term. Friday night through Monday night...we expect light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas for the latter part of the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this weekend and will persist into the early part of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 92 78 93 79 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 100 78 100 79 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 82 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 76 91 77 / 10 0 0 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX... until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 LONG TERM....54 AVIATION...69-HK/22-Garcia