648 FXUS64 KAMA 252328 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 628 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across portions of the Panhandles early this evening. There are currently two main pockets of storm activity, around the Amarillo/Canyon area over to Vega and another up from Spearman/Perryton up into the OK Panhandle. Some of the storms may produce gusty winds upwards of 50 to 60 mph along with brief moderate to heavy rainfall with small hail. Thunderstorm coverage should decrease around or after sunset this evening. Have updated the forecast to account for the expected coverage of thunderstorms the rest of the evening. Muscha && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 The latest upper level analysis reveals anticyclone now centered over east-central portions of OK and KS as a closed low moves over NV with fairly robust trough extending north over the Great Basin. While the stronger southwest flow aloft remains slightly west of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, heights will continue to slowly fall as the upper high continues to shift east through tomorrow. This trend will also result in slightly cooler temperatures aloft and temperatures at the surface will slowly trend down as well. Today looks to be the last with widespread triple digit heat, with mid to upper 90s expected tomorrow. We are not expecting to issuing heat advisories for a while after today. There is a low to medium chance (20-40%) for storms this afternoon into this evening as convergence increases along a strengthening surface trough stretched from near Glenrio to Pampa. Winds have started backing to the southeast south of this trough, but remain southwest along and north of the trough. Areas near this trough are where storm coverage may be more scattered during the afternoon, but this will shift to the northwest zones in the evening where the low level jet is stronger. MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with DCAPE values of 1500-1800 J/kg (inverted-v soundings) are already noted on the latest SPC mesoanalysis near and north of the boundary. Weak winds aloft should keep shear on the low side, but the stronger updrafts could produce microbursts and localized winds near 60mph. Some brief heavy rain is also possible (12z KAMA sounding indicated near 90th percentile PWAT). Tomorrow should see almost a repeat, with perhaps slightly more coverage due to slightly better low level moisture and possibly a few outflow boundaries in play. Ward && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Mid-level height falls will continue through the week as the upper high that has dominated our area for the last 10 days will continue shifting east as the NV upper trough shifts northeast and crosses the Dakotas. A Pac-NW trough follows behind the first, helping to keep the upper high suppressed through late-week. Meanwhile, a cold core low will move this direction from the Gulf of Mexico and another area of broad/weak cyclonic flow will develop over the desert southwest. These features eventually result in much above normal moisture for the area starting around Thursday and extending through the weekend. This should result in additional cloudiness helping to further reduce temperatures and increase rain chances. Temperatures are expected to fall below normal by Friday. There is good agreement in all of the major ensemble groups showing potential for multiple rounds of showers and storms starting Thursday. PWATs may approach daily max values during this time frame with soundings looking very tropical (long skinny CAPE and sluggish mid-level lapse rates). Does this mean everyone can expect beneficial rainfall? Not exactly. When, where, and exactly how much rain will depend on where the best lift exists and what happens with a potential cold front which models do not agree. This is why total QPF for AMA ranges from a few tenths of an inch to a few inches within the ensemble suite. So while there is a decent chance of getting some rain (>80% for 0.10" through next weekend), the chance for meaningful precip is still pretty low (<30% for an inch or more through next weekend). In any case, areas that do get heavier rainfall could see some flooding issues, and there may be just enough shear for a severe storm or two. Ward && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Thunderstorms will be possible for a few more hours at KAMA/KGUY with the main impacts being gusty winds and lightning. A storm may get close to KDHT but confidence is not high enough to mention at this time, will amend if necessary. Winds will mainly be out of the south to southwest over the next 24 hours with some gusts up to 20 to potentially 25 kts possible after 18z. Additional showers and storms are expected late in this TAF period, but timing and location of any storms is too low to mention in the TAFs. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 69 95 67 94 / 30 20 10 10 Beaver OK 69 98 68 95 / 30 10 10 0 Boise City OK 64 93 62 89 / 20 20 20 20 Borger TX 70 100 69 98 / 30 20 20 0 Boys Ranch TX 67 96 66 94 / 30 30 30 10 Canyon TX 67 94 65 93 / 30 20 10 10 Clarendon TX 69 96 67 95 / 10 10 0 0 Dalhart TX 63 92 62 90 / 20 30 30 10 Guymon OK 66 96 64 93 / 20 10 20 10 Hereford TX 67 95 65 94 / 30 30 20 10 Lipscomb TX 71 99 69 97 / 30 10 20 0 Pampa TX 69 96 66 94 / 30 20 20 0 Shamrock TX 70 98 68 96 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 71 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...05