761 FXUS63 KFGF 031451 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 951 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -There is a level 2 out of 5 severe thunderstorm risk Saturday afternoon and early evening across parts of west central Minnesota and extreme southeast North Dakota, with a level 1 risk surrounding it just north to near Bemidji and Fargo. - Significantly cooler temps next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 There has been a bit of convection around the FA already this morning. Have issued 2 warnings for a cell that tracked through southeast Roseau, far southwest Lake of the Woods, and northern Beltrami counties. Otherwise, there has been more coverage of showers and storms along and north of the Canadian border in northern Minnesota (which is mostly moving away from the FA), with more isolated cells along the highway 2 corridor (which have generally been weakening now). Expect once this morning activity wanes, there should be somewhat of a break until more showers and storms fire by late afternoon into early evening. By that point, the main question is where any of this activity may develop. SPC has maintained the slight risk (level 2 of 5) for our far southeast/southern FA during this period, although they did mention changes are possible with the next (~11 am) update. There are still questions about how remnant cloud cover, cold frontal timing, and capping issues will play into what happens this afternoon. So at this point, pretty much staying put with the previous messaging. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sat Aug 3 2024 ...Synopsis... The issue today is severe potential along and just behind a cold front that will be moving south. The timing of this front is still uncertain enough so that confidence in location and timing of any severe convection is low. Cooler airmass behind this front will be over the area Sunday and thru next week with highs in the low-mid 70s with rain chances Sun night-Monday and again possibly mid or late week. Initial cold frontal boundary with north wind shift is moving south and is south of Winnipeg and will be near the border around 12z. Overall model solutions have went with faster movement of front with HRRR, CAMs having wind shift at 21z btwn BJI/PKD to just south of Detroit Lakes to Wahpeton. The front is out of the area around 00z. It is this 21z-00z period that is most prone for scattered severe development as MUCAPEs peak in the 3000-4000 j/kg zone in far south fcst area (slight risk area). Forecast soundings also indicate potential for large hail, and for a brief time behind the actual wind shift and before the 850 mb front enough low level helicity for mesocyclones....this again would favor Park Rapids, Fergus Falls, Wadena, Elbow Lake areas 22z-01z period. Coverage of storms prior to main severe weather development is uncertain but appears to be more isolated/scattered in the RRV and thru NW MN. More stable airmass moves in overnight and a cooler airmass starts to move in Sunday but more noticeable Monday and after. Upper flow is dominated by trough over Hudson Bay and high pressure that will be in central Canada (northern SK/MB) with areas on the south/west edge of this airmass seeing 500 mb short waves with rain chances from Calgary east-southeast into southern ND/SD into parts of central and southern MN Sun night/Monday. For mid to late week....500 mb disagreement is quite substantial with equal possibilities at this time of a westerly flow and wetter conditions vs a more north flow around a stronger low in western Quebec and cooler/drier conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024 VFR conditions prevail overnight and into Saturday. There is a low chance of an isolated shower during the overnight period, mainly for KBJI and KTVF; however, most guidance keeps precipitation out of the area through much of the period. Winds will shift to the north, then to the northeast following a cold front that will move across the area from northwest to southeast through the day Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday afternoon and evening. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch