709 FXUS64 KBMX 130234 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 934 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 931 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2024 Winds have weakened considerably since sunset with several locations already reporting calm winds. Another cool night with lows in the 40s. No significant changes to forecast. 58/rose Previous short-term discussion: (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 142 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2024 This afternoon. A closed low was located over Lake Huron of the Great Lakes while deep troughing extended southwest over the Southern Appalachians. To our west, amplified longwave ridging extended over the Plains states while a shortwave trough was offshore of Southern California. Deep occluded surface low pressure was located just northeast of Lake Huron with another area of low pressure at the triple point located across far Northwest New York State. A surface cold front extended south along the Mid Atlantic and further south offshore of the Southeast Atlantic Coast. Surface high pressure was centered across the ArkLaTex Region. The pressure gradient remains tight enough again today to support breezy to windy conditions at times under sunny skies except for the northeast counties that may see a few cumulus clouds moving southeast through the afternoon hours. Winds will be from the northwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible in the more open areas and areas in higher terrain. High temperatures will range from the mid 60s in the higher terrain east to the mid 70s far southwest. Tonight. The deep upper low will move east over Northern New York overnight while longwave ridging continues to build over the Plains and moves east toward the Mid-South Region. Both deep surface low pressure areas will move northeast into Canada while surface high pressure moves east, becoming centered across the Lower to Middle Mississippi River Valley. Expect clear skies across much of the area with exception far northeast where a few clouds may linger before moving east of the state later in the night and far southwest where a few high clouds will begin to approach from the west. Some patchy fog may develop due to the recent rains that have resulted in rather moist ground conditions. This potential looks to be best across portions of the southwest and in vicinity of rivers and lakes. The winds will decrease substantially as surface high pressure moves closer to the area with northwest winds from 2-4 mph forecast. Low temperatures will range from near 40 in the normally colder spots north and northeast to the mid 40s south and southwest. Saturday. Amplified ridging in the mid levels will continue to move east toward the area on Saturday while troughing will persist over New England with a closed low along the Central California Coast. A surface trough will be located to the east along the Coastal Carolinas while surface high pressure will be centered near the Florida Big Bend. Mostly sunny skies are forecast on Saturday as some high level clouds move in from the west and southwest through the day. Winds will be from the west-northwest at 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the higher elevations east to the low 80s southwest. 05 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 310 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2024 Minor changes needed to temps and rain chances for early next week this afternoon. Otherwise, current forecast and model trends are on track through midweek. 14 Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2024 A period of quiet weather is expected for Sunday through Tuesday as an upper-level ridge amplifies over the region in response to a strong trough moving toward the Southern Plains. Conditions will remain dry with temperatures should reaching the low to mid 80s each afternoon. As the trough in the Plains moves toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the tail end of a weakening front should arrive on Wednesday. This could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to our north counties, but widespread significant rain is not expected. Another trough is expected to move across the Middle Mississippi Valley late Thursday. Much of the day should remain dry, but rain chances will increase Thursday evening into early Friday as a front approaches from the northwest. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2024 VFR conds thru the period with no cig or vsby issues expected. 58/rose && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions will be in place through early next week. A few localized spots in the east tomorrow afternoon could drop to 25 percent for a few hours. Otherwise, minimum RH values will fall into the 26 to 32 percent range. 20 ft northwesterly winds will be 6-10mph. Minimum RH values will be in the 30-40 percent range Sunday and Monday. 20ft winds become southwesterly Saturday at 6-12mph, and diminish to 5-8mph on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 42 77 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 43 77 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 45 78 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 45 81 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 45 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Auburn 46 77 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 44 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Troy 46 79 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...58/rose LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...58