332 FXUS61 KBGM 120746 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 346 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms, along with gusty winds, will persist through the early morning hours. Another round of rain showers will move in tonight along with more gusty winds lasting into Saturday morning. Rain may mix with snow late Friday night into Saturday morning as cooler air returns briefly for the weekend. A warming trend is expected to return again early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 347 AM Update... Surface analysis places a 986mb low west of Toronto, with a warm front banked up against the Adirondacks, placing our entire CWA in the warm sector with gusty SE winds. Surface dewpoints are mostly in the upper-50s, but some lower-60s readings are nosing into NEPA and parts of the Southern Tier of NY. Not coincidentally, this is where the 3 hour rainfall amounts have been highest outside the higher terrain, generally around 0.25 inches. Higher amounts can be found east of the Poconos, where gauges indicate over a half inch of rain has fallen in the past 3 hours. This might be concerning if it were continuing, but a narrow dry slot is moving into the area, bringing a break in the shower coverage. A convective line of showers extends just ahead of a cold front across western NY into parts of Central PA. This is expected to weaken somewhat as it rotates up towards the Finger Lakes region, though additional heavier convective showers are expected to redevelop over eastern portions of the CWA as a shortwave trough lifts up from the southwest and the cold front continues to push east. We will need to keep an eye on rainfall in the Poconos and Catskills later this morning for any short-fuse hydro concerns, but so far the break in precip is helping in that regard. Overall, expect periods of rain showers to continue through the morning, with some breaks. Showers will mainly lift north of the area, with drier conditions prevailing by around Midday into the early afternoon, after which isolated showers will begin cropping up again, especially across the Finger Lakes and NEPA. High temperatures for the day will be set this morning, generally in the lower-60s, falling off into the 50s slowly through the day. Wrap-around rain showers will become more numerous overnight, as colder air moves in. Rain will mix with snow at times after midnight, and some higher elevation areas south and southwest of the Finger Lakes could see an inch or so of wet snow accumulation on grassy surfaces by Saturday morning, though impacts will be minimal. Elsewhere, snow accumulation is not expected. Showers will change back over to all rain during the day Saturday. Gusty SE winds, which have topped 35 mph at times overnight, will diminish to around 15 to 25 mph this afternoon as they shift to the southwest. Winds will increase again late tonight into early Saturday, with gusts possibly pushing 40 mph across the Thruway corridor Saturday morning as a low level jet axis moves overhead. Gusts could come close to advisory criteria, but will let the day shift reevaluate. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 225 PM Update... The upper level trough bringing rain to end the work week will tilt negatively on Saturday, slowing the eastward progression of the precipitation as the surface low lifts to the north. NW flow will move over the region, advecting in the coldest airmass of the week. Temperatures Saturday will only climb into the mid to upper 40s across NY with low 50s in NEPA. NW flow off the lakes will enhance the wrap around moisture already present in the exiting trough, bringing rain showers across the region during the day, slowly dissipating from SW to NE. Rain should clear out by the early evening with clearing skies moving in from the west as a weak ridge of high pressure builds into the area. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region. High pressure will not stick around long as another shortwave digs into the region from the Great Lakes. A quick burst of WAA should occur across the Finger Lakes and Twin Tiers during the afternoon, bringing temperatures here to the mid 60s, while north and east of this region seeing mid to upper 50s. This should bring enough warmth to provide some elevated instability, especially when the cold front pushes through the region during the late afternoon early evening hours. Elevated thunderstorms will be possible along the front, stretching from the Finger Lakes into the Twin Tiers and Catskills from the afternoon into the evening hours. Sunday night will see temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s with low level moisture trapped under a dry inversion moving into the region from the NW. This will keep low level clouds around overnight, helping moderate overnight temperatures. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 255 PM Update... We finally see some relief from the rain with a ridge moving into the region for the first half of the week. The warm air from the ridge will battle the cooler air from the slowly departing upper trough on Monday. Temps over the Twin Tiers and Finger Lakes should be in the mid to upper 60s with areas north and east in the upper 50s to low 60s. The ridge finally wins out on Tuesday, injecting temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday across the region. Unfortunately, this nice weather will not stick around as another low moves into the Great Lakes Wednesday, bringing rain showers back to the region for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Numerous rain showers will continue to impact the region through the early morning hours, with flight categories generally at fuel alt levels, occasionally dropping to IFR at BGM and ITH. Visibility will drop as low as 2SM at times in heavier convective showers. Isolated thunder remains possible, but with probabilities too low for mention in the TAFs. Most areas will see a break in precip starting around 15-16Z, with improving conditions (generally MVFR), but isolated showers will redevelop in the afternoon, and particularly in the evening as wrap-around precip moves in. Precip looks to stay all rain through 06Z Sat. SE winds will continue to gust as high as 30 kts, but will diminish later this morning. SW winds will increase again later Friday night into Saturday morning. Low level wind shear is indicated everywhere with 2k foot winds from 160 degrees at 45 to 50 kts sustained. This will diminish after dawn. Outlook... Late Friday night through Saturday...Possible restrictions from rain and snow showers. Gusty winds continue. Sunday...Chance for rain showers and possible restrictions. Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPH NEAR TERM...MPH SHORT TERM...JTC LONG TERM...JTC AVIATION...MPH/TAC