212 FXUS64 KSHV 092040 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 Looks like a couple of rounds of severe weather on tap over the next 24 hours or so, along with more heavy rainfall. First thing first...a potent MCS, with a very pronounced comma-head, has develop across Rusk County in East Texas. This feature will continue to push in a east-northeast direction over the next several hours. SPC has issued a Tornado Watch, generally along I-20 over all of our East TX counties and Louisiana parishes to account for this. We will probably see a brief break in severe activity behind this feature, although some light to moderate rainfall may continue. However, strong to severe storms will return overnight in to early Wednesday morning. Short-term progs all continue to suggest the development of QLCS across South Texas tonight ahead of a closed trough shifting east through the southern Panhandle of Texas. This QLCS is expected to rapidly intensify and move northeastward, eventually making it into our East Texas and Louisiana zones just south of the I-20 corridor overnight into early Wednesday morning. SPC has highlighted this with an Enhanced Risk for most of the aforementioned locations, with a Moderate Risk across a small portion of our Central Louisiana parishes. All modes of severe weather remain a risk, including isolated tornadoes and flash flooding from additional heavy rainfall. We will likely get dry slotted behind these storms during the day on Wednesday for a few hours. However, more storms are possible as the closed trough moves into the region, especially north of I-20 closer to the track of the closed trough. Hail would likely be the higher threat, as most of that convection should be elevated. Drier and noticeably cooler weather will move into the area late Wednesday night, as the trough and associated cold front move out of the region. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 A dry northwesterly flow will settle over the region on Thursday in wake of the frontal and trough passage. It's likely a Wind Advisory may be needed in some locations, as a tight pressure gradient will make for very gusty northwest winds. The winds will diminish by Friday as upper ridging moves into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley.T he ridge flattens by next weekend, but quiet conditions will prevail on Saturday and Sunday. Small rain chances return to the forecast on Monday ahead of another upper trough. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 159 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024 Cigs have mostly lifted/become VFR early this afternoon in wake of the morning convection/outflow bndry that affected Deep E TX/N LA, but cigs remain IFR/low MVFR farther WNW over much of E TX/Srn AR where additional convection has developed. While much of this convection remains elevated, they may tend to root more towards the sfc across Deep E TX by mid-afternoon before shifting into NCntrl LA during the late afternoon/early evening. Thus, locally gusty winds and IFR cigs may affect LFK, whereas locally heavy rain will tend to result in vsby reductions at TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV before eventually affecting MLU by early evening. Additional convection redevelopment will remain possible through the evening/overnight across NCntrl LA/adjacent Deep E TX, while tapering elsewhere for several hours as we await the next MCS that will develop over the TX Hill Country late this evening, and quickly shift E into the region after 09-10Z Wednesday. Have maintained prevailing TSRA with IFR cigs for all terminals around/after daybreak, with the stronger convection quickly diminishing from W to E by mid to late morning. Some residual rains may linger through the remainder of the TAF period. E winds 5 to 10kts will continue this afternoon through tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 76 54 73 / 90 90 20 0 MLU 65 77 54 73 / 100 100 30 10 DEQ 59 72 48 70 / 80 100 50 0 TXK 62 74 52 71 / 80 100 50 0 ELD 61 74 50 72 / 90 100 40 10 TYR 62 73 51 72 / 80 60 10 0 GGG 64 75 52 72 / 80 80 20 0 LFK 64 76 52 75 / 90 70 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073. LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...15