797 FXUS61 KBGM 031103 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 703 AM EDT Wed Apr 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will develop to our south today and move up the east coast tonight into Thursday. Several rounds of rain eventually followed by some wintry precipitation are expected. The upper level low lingers into the weekend with additional rain and snow showers. High pressure builds into the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Only minor changes with previous discussion below. Moisture will continue to get rung out along a frontal boundary to our south and west leading to the development of additional rounds of rainfall through tonight. Rainfall should get enhanced some by a low pressure system moving northeast through Delmarva into Southern New England tonight. Additional liquid precipitation of 1-2 inches may lead to some small stream and poor drainage flooding later this afternoon and tonight. Also, rises on several rivers are still likely to reach minor flood stage. As a result, the flood watch continues for NE PA and most of Central New York. Temperatures look to remain fairly steady given the clouds, rain and strong easterly winds. Model soundings show the potential for some 30-40 mph wind gusts today. This may enhanced some in higher elevations particularly as you get closer to the Mohawk valley where a few gusts could reach 50 mph this afternoon. A wind advisory has been issued for Oneida county. An inversion may limit the strongest gusts from being more widespread. A wedge of cold air this afternoon and evening around 5,000 feet looks to advance south and westward into locations east of I-81 allowing for rain to change to sleet/ touch of freezing rain for a time by the evening hours. Eventually, the cold wedge will work to the surface tonight. Locations west of I-81 look to see a more traditional cooling of the profile going from rain to snow. Snow ratios due to the sleet and warm ground look to stay under 10:1, perhaps as low as 5:1. Our end result looks to be a few inches of snow and sleet accumulation in the higher elevations along and east of I-81. Accumulations look lighter, under an inch for a good portion of valley locations and the Finger Lakes due to the lower ratios and faster departure of the deeper moisture. On the backside of the low pressure system Several disturbances will Thursday and Thursday night our region will be under the upper level low. Enough residual moisture looks to be in place for additional rain and snow showers. Temperatures mainly in the 30's given the clouds and precipitation. With any snowfall, the rates look much lighter than tonight and will be tough to accumulate much given a warm ground. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM Update... Friday into Friday night will be remaining unsettled across the area as a broad upper low centered to our east continues to encompass the Northeast and Great Lakes region while surface low pressure remains stationary over New England. With plenty of wrap around moisture, cold air aloft and northwest flow persisting off the Great Lakes, precipitation will be likely Friday, especially from the Twin Tiers on north. Widespread shower activity will be mainly in the form of snow to start the day, before mixing with and changing to rain as temperatures rise into the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. The exception to this will be in the highest elevations, especially above 1,700-1,800 ft where a rain/snow mix is likely into the afternoon with temperatures in the low and mid 30s. Rain/snow showers will be most prevalent around the Finger Lakes and points east into the higher terrain of CNY and up toward the Syracuse metro Friday night, especially during the evening hours. Lows Friday night will be in the lower to mid 30s. With the marginal temperatures in place, little in terms of snow accumulation is expected in the higher elevations Friday into Friday night. Also of note, with the chilly flow off the lakes and aloft, thick cloud cover and widespread precipitation, the NBM 10th percentile was blended into the forecast to lower temperatures slightly from guidance for Friday as guidance is often too warm in this setup. Rain/snow showers will carry over into Saturday, mainly around the Finger Lakes, but the showers will start to become more isolated during the afternoon as the stubborn upper low begins to shift farther to the east and the last of the precipitation is expected to end by evening. Highs Saturday are expected to be from the upper 30s to the mid 40s. Lows Saturday night will fall back into the upper 20s and low 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 430 AM Update... Surface high pressure begins to build in from the northwest Sunday promoting dry conditions for the second half of the weekend and the start of a warming trend with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. An upper level ridge builds in from the west Monday keeping conditions dry. As the flow turns more southwesterly this day, temperatures will continue to climb reaching the middle and upper 50s with some of the valley locations making a run at the lower 60s. In terms of sky cover for the solar eclipse, high clouds still look possible on Monday associated with a storm system over the Midwest. Beyond Monday, uncertainty in the forecast increases as the models begin to diverge with regards to the track, timing and intensity of the system over the Midwest and when precipitation, which would be in the form of rain, returns. Some guidance hints the chance of rain as early as Monday night, while other solutions hold off until later Tuesday or Wednesday, so this will be monitored. Regardless of the uncertainty, it will remain warm through midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Rain is currently widespread across the area with the large and complex storm system that will continue to impact all terminals through the TAF period. The rain can be locally heavy this morning, but so far there have not be the drops in visibility that have been expected looking across the region, so IFR conditions for this first batch of rain have been covered for via TEMPO this update. Winds have also not become quite as strong yet, so wind speeds/gusts have been backed off slightly for the next several hours this update. After a lull in the rain early in the afternoon, another heavier round is still expected from mid afternoon through early evening that can bring IFR conditions from 20Z-00Z Thursday. As the evening progresses and through the overnight hours the rain will mix with and change over to snow at all terminals, but there is some uncertainty with regards to the potential IFR conditions tonight, especially around RME, SYR and AVP. SE LLWS will mainly affect BGM, AVP, and RME this afternoon as wind speeds increase at the surface. There remains some uncertainty with how long in persists through the late afternoon/early evening so this will be monitored. The LLWS around 2000 ft AGL is expected to range from 35-50 knots. Outlook... Thursday through Friday...Prolonged period of flight restrictions ranging from MVFR-IFR and occasionally worse with periods of rain and snow. Slight improvement for southern areas on Friday. Saturday...VFR likely. Isolated MVFR/IFR in scattered lake effect snow showers possible for the vicinity of KSYR-KRME- KITH. Sunday...VFR likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for PAZ038>040-043-044- 047-048-072. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for PAZ040. NY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-037. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ009-036-037-045-046-057. Flood Watch through Thursday evening for NYZ022>025-044>046- 055>057-062. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWG NEAR TERM...MWG SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...DK/DJN