522 FXUS64 KLCH 300759 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 259 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Quiet weather noted across the region overnight/early this morning, with some high clouds noted on IR satellite imagery streaming overhead in the quasi-zonal westerly flow aloft. Temperatures across the area are ranging from the lower 50s at some of the cooler inland spots to the lower 60s near the coast. These readings are a good 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, evidence of the WAA regime now in place amid low level south/southwest flow to the west of a ridge centered over the FL peninsula. With this low level setup progged to remain in place over the next couple of days, coupled with rising heights downstream of a digging upper trof over the WRN CONUS, continued warming/moistening is expected, culminating in low temperatures around 70 and high temperatures in the lower/mid 80s on Monday under considerable cloud cover. Southerly winds will gradually increase in magnitude, nearing wind advisory criteria (sustained 20 mph) Monday as a lead shortwave trof/jet max ejects out across the Plains and an associated ~40kt LLJ develops across east TX and LA. Slight rain chances (~20%) also enter the forecast late MON night as a CDFNT begins to sag toward the area. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Guidance is consistent in showing a cold front entering the forecast area to begin the long term period on Tuesday. Very moist air mass to pool ahead of the front with PWAT values in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range with mean layer 100H-50H relative humidity above 75 percent. There are still some questions to just how much shower activity will develop ahead of the front. Some capping may remain in place with the southwest flow above the surface ahead of the front and overall low level convergence is progged to be weak to modest at best. Also, best upper level dynamics look to stay off to the north and northeast. Therefore, will keep pops in the slight chance to chance range with the higher pops for east central Louisiana. Dry continental air mass will move in behind the front quickly ending shower activity by evening. High pressure will then build and gradually move across the forecast area during the Wednesday through Friday period. Conditions will be dry with temperatures somewhat below daily norms bring about mild days and cool night. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 VFR conditions with only high clouds streaming overhead are ongoing across all terminals. This will continue to be the case through at least the morning hours. Guidance is hinting at some lowered VIS across southwest Louisiana between 06 and 12Z, but VIS should remain greater than 5 SM across the board. Latest RAOB indicates moisture is returning to the region from aloft, working downward through the column. This trend will continue and will reflect in ceilings as clouds develop at around 5 kft tomorrow afternoon. Afternoon cloud cover should dissipate generally after sundown, with low clouds around MVFR heights moving in from the northwest after this TAF period. Mentions of this occurring were included in final groups at BPT and AEX. Winds will prevail out of the south and southeast with high to the east. Light winds overnight will increase once again after 14Z and will be breezy to occasionally gusty. Afternoon gusts up to 20 knots can be anticipated. 11/Calhoun && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Mar 30 2024 Onshore flow will continue through Easter Weekend as surface high pressure continues to slide east of the region. Expect southerly winds and seas to increase Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient increases between the surface high to the east and developing surface low over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Expect low chances of showers ahead of the next cold front Tuesday, followed by strong offshore flow Tuesday night. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 80 59 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 77 64 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 80 64 82 69 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 79 64 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...11