969 FXUS64 KMOB 291946 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Saturday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 A shortwave ridge at high altitudes carries us into the start of the weekend. At 29.12Z, the axis of surface high pressure was centered over northern AL/GA. Atop the ridge, high based cirrus noted on satellite imagery over the plains is anticipated to spread eastward over the local area tonight. These clouds look to thin more into the day Saturday while moving off to the southeast. There are indications though that another batch of high based clouds will be spreading northeast out of TX and LA late in the day Saturday. No rain expected as deep layer moisture is non- existent. The surface high will be east of the area tonight and Saturday resulting in a more southerly component to the wind. Coolest overnight temperatures over the interior, dipping into the mid/upper 40s. Lows in the mid/upper 50s along and south of I-10. Highs on Saturday trend warmer with temperatures reaching the mid/upper 70s. A low risk of rip currents is expected at all area beaches through Saturday. /10 && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 Broad upper ridging builds over much of the eastern CONUS through Sunday night while a positively tilted upper trof advances across the western states. The upper trof becomes increasingly elongated through Monday night to span from near the western Great Lakes to the Baja area, while the broad upper ridge over the eastern states begins to shift into the western Atlantic. A surface ridge oriented across or near the northern Gulf coast persists through Monday then retreats eastward in response to a surface low advancing across the Plains. This pattern promotes a moistening southerly flow over the forecast area, and precipitable water values trend from around 0.8 inches Saturday evening to roughly around 1.25 inches Monday night. Have continued with a dry forecast through the period, but rain chances will be returning to the area on Tuesday (early LONG TERM). Lows Saturday night range from the lower 50s well inland to around 60 at the coast, then trend to mild nighttime lows mostly in the mid 60s Monday night. Patchy fog is expected to affect mainly the central and southern portions of the area Saturday night and Sunday night, and is possible Monday night as well. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s, then highs on Monday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A low risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday night, then a moderate risk follows for Monday and Monday night. /29 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 An elongated upper trof extending from the near the western Great Lakes to the Baja area takes on a much more meridional orientation while advancing into the eastern states through Wednesday. An associated surface low located initially over/near Missouri moves off into the northeast states and occludes, and in the process brings a cold front through the forecast area Tuesday night. Have gone with slight chance to chance pops on Tuesday and mainly chance to good chance pops Tuesday evening which then taper off to dry conditions by Wednesday morning. Dry conditions are expected to follow through the remainder of the forecast period. MLCAPE values look to increase to 500-1000 J/kg Tuesday afternoon as the front approaches, and shear values increase as well with 0-3 km helicity values looking to be near 200 m2/s2. Despite these indicated parameters, model soundings continue to exhibit a moist or near moist adiabatic lapse rate below 700/750 mb which remains a significant potential limiting factor for the development of stronger storms. Will continue to monitor at this point. /29 && .MARINE... Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024 No marine impacts are expected through Monday. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow becomes established into the weekend. A cold front approaches Tuesday. Ahead of the front, chances for showers and storms will be on the increase along with a build in sea states Tuesday into early Wednesday. Frontal passage early Wednesday morning brings an increase in northwest winds with its passage and an end to showers and storms. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 53 76 57 79 64 80 66 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Pensacola 57 73 60 76 66 78 67 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 Destin 59 72 62 75 66 77 68 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 47 79 52 82 60 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Waynesboro 49 79 55 81 61 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 Camden 48 78 54 81 61 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 Crestview 48 77 51 81 61 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob