623 
FXUS64 KLUB 271703
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1203 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Water vapor imagery showed the base of a broad upper trough was 
shifting slowly across West Texas early this morning with one 
embedded impulse noted over the central TX Panhandle. A few showers 
accompanied this impulse, although this activity is expected to wane 
through daybreak. Surface obs at 2 AM revealed a weak low near 
Clovis with a stationary front draped southeast to near Big Spring. 
The low is forecast to redevelop southeast into the southern Rolling 
Plains later this afternoon all the while the stationary front 
creeps to near the Highway 84 corridor while dividing milder and 
occasionally breezy NW winds from cooler E-NE flow. Despite weak 
subsidence aloft on the heels of this morning's impulse, broad 
cyclonic NW flow aloft will maintain anomalously cold mid-level 
temps and favorable lapse rates. With sufficient heating, soundings 
look supportive for a few showers or even a brief thunderstorm later 
this afternoon, mainly N-NE of Lubbock, until this activity dwindles 
around sunset. Very spotty coverage warrants keeping PoPs below 20% 
for now.

Strong height rises take hold overnight ahead of ridging for 
tomorrow. The stationary front meanwhile will become a cold front 
tonight while settling into the Permian Basin and eastern NM before 
ultimately washing out tomorrow morning. Mostly clear skies and 
light winds should garner one more night of below normal lows region 
wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

An upper ridge will move into the area on Thursday brining warmer 
temperatures through the rest of the week. Highs on Friday will 
climb into the mid 80s across much of the area, slightly warming even 
further on Saturday and Sunday. Combined with breezy southwest winds 
of 15-25 mph and minimum RH values near 10%, fire weather concerns 
will be elevated. A deep upper trough will approach from the west on 
Monday, bringing about a significant pattern change. An associated 
strong surface cold front will move through as well and highs are 
expected to fall back into the 50s by Tuesday. Precipitation chances 
remain highly uncertain at this time, however it cannot be ruled out 
for any part of the forecast area. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. There is a low chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms near PVW between 22-02Z. If a
storm does affect PVW this biggest hazard will be wind gusts up 
to 35 knots.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...51