754 FXUS64 KLCH 241741 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1241 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Cap on this morning's KLCH upper air sounding should stay around this afternoon that no significant shower activity is expected. However, extensive mid to upper level cloudiness should help filter the sunshine somewhat as moisture moves out ahead of an upper level disturbance to the west. Rain chances increase on Monday as a cold front moves through. More details on timing and strength of the system will be in the afternoon package. No changes to the forecast at this time. Rua && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 At present the surface high pressure is over the ArkLaMiss area with winds in our area out of the east and ENE. Over the morning hours, we will see the high pressure move off and winds turn out of the south. All eyes are now on a system making its way into the Rockies as I type. The pressure gradient between the departing high and incoming system will tighten, leading to stronger southerly flow this afternoon and tonight. While it will not be quite breezy enough to lead to a Wind Advisory today, its very possible that one will need to be issued tomorrow. Gradient winds alone will be in the 20 to 30 MPH range with higher gusts possible. Another issue that will present itself with the elevated southerly winds is the influx of moisture it will bring. Dewpoints tonight and tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s with PWATs above the 90th percentile. As this system and attached front continue to push east, we will see showers and storms start to spread through the area as early as tomorrow morning with activity increasing in intensity and becoming more widespread over the afternoon hours. As a result of this, nearly the entire CWA is in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms. In addition to that, we are also in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall save the Golden Triangle and southern Jasper and Newton Counties. In regards to severe weather, all modes will be possible with the main threats appearing to be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. QPF totals have dropped a bit over the last 24h, however the same thought of keeping an eye on parts of CenLA remain. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Post-frontal surface high pressure will be building south from the Plains into the forecast area as we begin the long term, resulting in a dry and mild start to the period. Both Wed and Thurs will bring pleasant conditions with slightly below average temps, with highs expected to top out in the upper 60s to mid 70s while overnight lows will dip into the low 40s to low 50s. The surface high begins to slide off to the east as we move into Friday, while aloft ridging will be building across the center of the country. As surface winds return to an onshore flow by early Friday moisture will begin to gradually increase once again as we head into the weekend. Friday looks to be fairly seasonal as moisture return starts out slow, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the 50s on tap. After a full day of return flow moisture begins to ramp up a bit over the weekend, with dewpoints returning to the upper 50s to low 60s and afternoon highs topping out around 80 degrees both Sat and Sun. Rain chances will however, remain near zero through the Easter weekend. 17 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 A storm system will gather strength over the Plains tonight and Monday. This will further increase southerly winds and increase moisture. Clouds will increase with MVFR ceilings at KBPT/KLCH spreading to the east at all terminals during the night. Showers will increase during the morning hours at KBPT/KLCH/KAEX to add VCSH to the forecast after 25/15z. Thunderstorm activity will increase further ahead of a cold front beyond the forecast period on Monday afternoon. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 442 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024 Winds have begun to shift east and will shift out of the southeast later in the day as ridging moves east. Onshore flow will then strengthen today and into Monday as the low pressure deepens over the Plains and brings a front into the region. A combination of elevated winds and seas will bring about Advisory conditions starting today. The front will then be accompanied by scattered to numerous storms Monday into Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 72 62 75 52 / 0 10 90 30 LCH 73 65 76 56 / 0 0 90 20 LFT 74 66 77 61 / 0 0 80 60 BPT 75 66 77 53 / 0 10 80 0 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ430-432-435-436-455-475. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CDT Monday for GMZ450-452-470-472. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...07