354 
FXUS65 KFGZ 161200
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
500 AM MST Sat Mar 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure lingers through the weekend and into 
early next week resulting in cool temperatures, breezy winds, and 
scattered rain and snow showers with a few thunderstorms. 
Conditions look to improve by the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A cut off low will linger over the region through
this weekend into next week. At the moment, it's continuing to
provide some light, isolated showers across our area. Just to the
west (Mohave County/southern Nevada) it's providing much heavier 
precipitation. This lighter, isolated activity will persist until
this afternoon. Daytime heating will result in increasing 
instability, producing an increase in shower and storm coverage. 
Location of the low will result in greatest precip chances 
generally being along and west of the I-17 HW 89 corridor today. 
The low will shift further east by Sunday, resulting in higher 
precipitation chances for the eastern half of the CWA. 
Temperatures during the period are going to remain below normal 
with more limited heating expected thanks to cloud cover. 

The cut off low will continue to linger over the area through the
first half of the work week. Daily rain and snow chances will 
persist with greatest coverage occurring in the afternoons. Areas
of greatest coverage will be highly dependent on where the low is
centered that day: guidance indicates that it will be 
wobbling/shifting over the area. This means that any westward 
shifts would result in greater coverage in precipitation again. 
At the moment, this looks to be the case for Tuesday with an 
uptick in coverage compared to Monday. Temperatures will be 
warming both days so snow levels will be rising. By Tuesday, most 
below 8000 feet will receive rain, and likely graupel under 
afternoon thunderstorms. 

By Wednesday next week the upper level pattern will start to pick
the cut off low up and usher it out of the area. The day won't be
dry, but there will be a notable drop in coverage. By the end of 
the work week, ridging will be building into the area. 

The weather doesn't look to remain quiet. Following the ridge
entering the area late next week, another trough is liekly to dig
south impacting the area. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement
of this occurring, but low in confidence on exact depth, speed, 
and position. Will be monitoring this part of the forecast and 
provide more details as model confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 16/12Z through Sunday 17/12Z...Areas of
MVFR/IFR this morning. Some improvement is likely after 12Z but 
many areas will remain MVFR through the TAF period. SCT SHRA/SHSN
with ISO TSRA after 18Z. Light southerly winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 17/12Z through Tuesday 19/12Z...ISO-SCT SHRA/SHSN
through the outlook period. Mainly MVFR or lower conditions with 
periods of VFR. Winds become NE on Sunday and E on Monday with 
speeds generally between 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Scattered rain and high 
elevation snow showers will continue through the weekend, mainly 
during the afternoon hours. Expect well below average temperatures. 
Light winds today will become northeast around 15 to 25 mph on 
Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...A low pressure system will park over 
Arizona through early next week, continuing to bring cool weather 
with scattered rain and snow showers each afternoon. Locally breezy 
easterly winds are expected on Monday, gradually transitioning back 
to westerly by Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff