667 FXUS63 KDMX 160747 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 247 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - High fire weather danger this afternoon with strong northwest winds developing. Burning is discouraged. - Notably cooler weather by tonight and into Monday, then moderating temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. - Precipitation chances return in the latter half of the coming week, but with low confidence in details. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Skies are currently mostly clear across Iowa with moderate southwest breezes and temperatures easing into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Change is on the way however, as a sharp trough is dropping into southern Minnesota and will surge across our forecast area later this morning. Behind the front winds will turn to northwest and increase significantly, with speeds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts over 30 mph at times by this afternoon making for a blustery day. Cooler temperatures will also flow in, but we should still see highs in the upper 40s north to near 60 far south, where the front will move through several hours later after some daytime warming has been achieved. Fire weather danger remains concerning today, due to the strength of the winds and relatively low humidity. However, with minimum RH around 30-35 percent predicted, and fuels remaining damp in many areas due to recent rainfall, a Red Flag Warning has not been issued at this time. Additionally, upstream satellite imagery and high-res model guidance indicates potential for areas of low clouds moving over about the northeast half of the area this afternoon, which would somewhat mitigate mixing/gustiness/RH concerns. Still, will be messaging a high fire danger and plan to issue a Special Weather Statement to that effect later this morning. A secondary boundary, bringing even cooler temperatures will cross our area late tonight or Sunday morning and reinforce strong and gusty northwest winds once again during the day on Sunday. With lower temperatures and more cloud potential, elevated fire weather conditions should again remain below RFW levels. It will be a cold and blustery day however, with afternoon highs only in the mid 30s north to lower 40s south. This should make Sunday the first day this month with a below normal average temperature. Monday morning will be cold, with lows in the mid teens to lower 20s, however temperatures will then moderate by Tuesday and Wednesday with highs climbing back into the 50s on both days in most areas. In the latter half of the coming week the forecast becomes more uncertain in a split flow regime, with several subtle impulses moving through strong 500 mb flow to our north, concurrent with a broad 500 mb trough creeping eastward over the Southern Plains and Ozarks around Thursday and Friday. Long- range models have been having difficulty resolving the details of the interaction between the northern stream and southern trough, and as a result precipitation placement is highly variable between various solutions. This results in several consecutive days of 20-40 POPs from Wednesday night or Thursday through the end of the forecast period, however, we may see a proverbial gap scenario develop where the precipitation mostly remains to our north and south and much of the period remains dry in Iowa with just periods of light precipitation. Will await a clearer trend in solutions for this period before deviating from the current POP strategy. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Low level wind shear expected to develop within the next couple hours and continue through Saturday morning at all sites. The southwest winds tonight will shift to out of the northwest by mid to late morning across all sites with gusts of 25-30 kts expected at all sites into the afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish by Saturday evening. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lee AVIATION...Hagenhoff