254 FXUS63 KTOP 102320 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Monday afternoon across north-central Kansas (see Fire weather Discussion for more details). - A Fire Weather Watch for areas in northern Kansas where there remains the possibility of seeing Extreme Fire Weather conditions Monday, but confidence still isn't high enough at this time for a Red Flag Warning. - There is a 15-20% chance for rain/storms Tuesday evening across east central Kansas, but higher chances (40-65%) arrive area-wide Wednesday evening into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 133 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 We continue the quick warm-up today with clear sky and dry southerly wind mixing out the boundary-layer. Wind speeds may actually increase a bit tonight as a low-level jet develops and the pressure gradient steepens with a surface trough developing to our west. Tomorrow, southwesterly flow advecting in dry air, paired with deep mixing during the afternoon will likely create dangerous fire weather conditions for portions of northern Kansas. See the Fire Weather Discussion below for further details. High temperatures will reflect the clear skies and deep mixing by topping out in the low to mid 70s area-wide. By Monday night, surface winds become more southerly and advect more moisture into the area ahead of an approaching mid-level wave. As this wave moves through we will see an increase in cloud cover. A surface trough stalls out across eastern Kansas and a warm front develops and begins pushing northward Tuesday evening. As a result, a few rain showers or isolated thunderstorms may develop (20% or less chance) across portions of east central Kansas (south of I-35). More likely chances (40-65%) for shower and thunderstorms arrive Wednesday into Thursday. A surface low will deepen across eastern Kansas ahead of an approaching upper-level wave Wednesday. A north-moving warm front and isentropic ascent ahead of the surface low will increase precipitation chances throughout the day Wednesday with elevated showers and storms becoming possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The 12 UTC models are in better agreement with the evolution of this system than previous runs. It looks like northeastern Kansas is favored to see the best chances and highest amounts of precipitation Wednesday into Thursday with around a 60-70% chance of seeing up to 0.5 inches of precipitation. If the warm front slows down then these chances/amounts may push further south. Conversely, if the warm front speeds up then these chances/amounts may push further into Nebraska. Dry air moves in Thursday into Friday with cooler air filtering in behind the upper-level trough. Expect highs into the weekend topping out around 60 degrees. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Winds will be the main focus for this forecast. Southerly winds around 10kts expected through 13Z then increasing to around 14-18kts by 16Z from the southwest with gusts in the 25-28kt range. VFR conditions expected through the period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 458 AM CST Sun Mar 10 2024 Extreme fire weather conditions are likely across portions of north central Kansas and possible across portions of northeast Kansas Monday afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusting 20-30 mph will quickly mix out surface moisture and minimum afternoon RH values will drop around or just below 20 percent for areas in the Red Flag Warning. These conditions paired with fairly dry and dormant fuels will lead to extreme fire weather behavior Monday afternoon. For areas to the east of the Red Flag Warning, confidence is not as high in wind speeds rising and humidity falling to values needed for extreme fire weather conditions. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch will remain. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ008- KSZ020-KSZ034. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jones AVIATION...53 FIRE WEATHER...Jones