359 FXUS64 KSHV 101134 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 634 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 Cirrus clouds are lifting into S AR now with the clear skies there most of the night yielding our coldest readings in the mid to upper 30s. Elsewhere, we see low to mid 40s generally along and south of I-20. Our winds are light north of calm with a 1025mb high pressure center just east of Denton TX. This air mass will slowly drift to the east today and tonight and will be far enough to our NE on Monday to bring in SE/S winds off the Gulf, helping to warm the new week. Skies will see an increase in clouds and while still cool, Monday starts off slightly warmer with similar numbers really. Lots of low to mid 40s, and a few less mid or upper 30s north of I-20 and east of I-49. Mostly cloudy skies early will thin out by late day. So our highs on Monday will be held in check a bit, but the southerly winds will get many locales back up toward 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 326 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 As we get into the brunt of the new week, we will see a warming trend on lows as that southerly wind persists. 40s will quickly warm to 50s and even 60s beyond midweek. High temps will do well edging toward 80 through midweek, but the clouds increasing again will see that we fall just short. Averages for mid March are lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s, so much of this week will be above those numbers. It looks like a couple of short waves will be increasing the clouds and slowly bringing back a chance to get wet. Some of the middeck could touch off a few sprinkles Monday and then the second early Wednesday actually warrants a pop, but again very light totals to this point per WPC. However, the forecast will be turning to a wetter pattern by late week with more short wave energy and eventually another cold frontal passage maybe over the weekend. The QPF signals are in good agreement for Thursday and Friday, between the GFS and ECMWF. The WPC agrees with a slight risk for excessive rainfall on their day 5 outlook along and north of I-20. They are carrying a large area here of 2 inches or more, then shifting those 2 inch totals down I-49 into our parishes for Friday proper into early Saturday. The GFS continues with us looking a little busy rainwise next weekend, while the ECMWF is quite the opposite, so we will just let that simmer on the back burner for now until that next big surface air mass can be anticipated for our Four-State area. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Sun Mar 10 2024 For the 10/12Z TAF period, VFR conditions will prevail as clouds will be limited to cirrus throughout today with some mid-level altocu eventually expanding into our airspace after 11/00Z this evening. Otherwise, sfc high pressure shifting across Texas will maintain light northerly winds today around 5 kts or less before trending variable to near calm this evening and overnight. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 42 68 47 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 64 41 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 65 35 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 63 40 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 64 39 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 65 44 69 49 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 65 42 69 47 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 66 45 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...19