139 FXUS64 KAMA 080452 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1052 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 As of 12 PM, a dryline has mixed east into western Oklahoma with a cold front present just north of Borger. This front is expected to stall in the afternoon hours before working south again later in the afternoon through the evening. The surface low currently over the Panhandles will move off to the southeast through this afternoon and evening which assists the dryline in pushing back toward the Panhandles. Models are still split on how far west the dryline will make it, whether it's splitting the easternmost stack of Texas Panhandle counties or if it largely stays along the TX/OK border. In any case, if the HRRR is correct, convection may develop as early as 3 PM in the far eastern Texas Panhandle. If this happens, the inverted-V sounding suggests virga with the potential for strong wind gusts for the far eastern Texas Panhandle. Other models bring the dryline back into easternmost stack of counties and convective development may begin as early as 3-4 PM, primarily in the southeastern Texas Panhandle. If 50 degree dew points can make it back into the Panhandles, 1000-2000 MUCAPE could be realized which would ordinarily suggest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms starting around 6 PM. In this case, large hail would be the primary threat with 60+ mph wind gusts closely behind if convection is ahead of the cold front and surface-based. However... given that convective initiation is currently favored in the far eastern Texas Panhandle, there may not be much time for an updraft to mature and grow large hail before the storm moves into Oklahoma. Thus, while a severe thunderstorm wouldn't be out of the question in this scenario, it seems unlikely. The cold front will move through the area this evening and convection may continue to develop in the east throughout the evening. Snow begins to develop Friday morning as favorable forcing for ascent moves in. There is considerable uncertainty in the snow forecast at this moment. Going into today, there was fairly good confidence that the northwestern combined Panhandles are most favored for the highest snow accumulations in the area. Most models have moved away from a closed 700mb low solution which was providing the higher snowfall totals, now favoring more of an open wave with a less compact vort max. This ultimately leads to relatively greater confidence that the higher snow totals will be in the northeastern combined Panhandles, potentially even the east-central Texas Panhandle. Current HREF probabilistic guidance gives the northeast combined Panhandles a 30-40% chance for at least 2 inches of snow, with 20-30% covering much of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle. Some CAMs do suggest the potential for snow banding as well, which would lead to locally higher snow totals. HREF probabilistic guidance gives a 10-20% chance for at least 5 inches of snow in the northeast combined Panhandles. With all that said, there are an alarming number of models that give no snow or less than an inch of snow. However, this appears to mostly be due to temperatures that largely do not support snow. Not lending much credence to this idea as there will be northerly winds at 25-30 mph throughout the day, widespread cloud coverage, and precipitation ongoing; temperatures shouldn't warm much through the day. As such, have once again lowered Friday's highs up to 5 degrees. Long story short, accumulating snow is favored for the northeastern combined Panhandles into the central and eastern Texas Panhandle with the higher totals most favored to be in the northeast. Due to previously mentioned uncertainties, will hold off on issuing any winter weather headlines at this time but may be needed on future shifts. Snow should come to an end by Friday evening, and temperatures will fall into the 20s Friday night. Depending on depth and location of snow cover, these temperatures may need to be lowered for at least a portion of the area. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 A weak trough develops Sunday in the Southwestern US on the backside of the system currently impacting the Panhandles, but moisture will be insufficient for precipitation chances. Otherwise, another shortwave trough may impact the Panhandles Monday, but moisture may be in question. However, breezy southwesterly winds are favored with dry conditions which may lead to fire weather concerns. That system moves out and another trough dips into the Western US Wednesday. This may lead to weather of some kind later in the week. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 For the 06Z TAFs, a rather complicated forecast during the next 24 hours. Gusty north winds behind the latest cold frontal passage are expected to continue for much of this cycle, diminishing Friday evening. IFR to MVFR cigs will persist for most of the period. An upper level storm system is expected to track across the area tonight and Friday, and will bring a threat for light rain and light snow to the TAF sites. Precipitation is forecast to end from the northwest later Friday afternoon. Confidence is low regarding timing of any precipitation plus changes in cig categories, and amendments are possible. 02 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Mar 7 2024 Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue in the far southwestern Texas Panhandle today. Fire weather conditions may return Monday due to breezy southwesterly winds, temperatures in the 70s, and low RH values. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 36 42 25 54 / 20 40 0 0 Beaver OK 31 43 23 56 / 30 40 0 0 Boise City OK 28 37 21 54 / 40 40 0 0 Borger TX 36 44 27 57 / 20 40 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 34 43 24 55 / 20 40 0 0 Canyon TX 35 43 25 55 / 10 40 0 0 Clarendon TX 39 46 29 55 / 20 40 10 0 Dalhart TX 30 39 21 54 / 30 40 0 0 Guymon OK 30 40 22 55 / 30 30 0 0 Hereford TX 35 43 24 54 / 10 40 0 0 Lipscomb TX 34 43 25 56 / 30 40 0 0 Pampa TX 35 43 26 53 / 30 50 10 0 Shamrock TX 39 47 29 55 / 30 40 10 0 Wellington TX 42 49 29 56 / 30 40 10 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...02