689 
FNUS73 KUNR 040716
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Flynn Fire...SD Wildland Fire
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1216 AM MST Mon Mar 4 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MST on March 03. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Excellent RH recovery overnight with light easterly 
winds. West/southwest facing aspects and sheltered locations should 
experience light, terrain driven winds. Winds will shift to the south and
increase to 10 to 15 mph by late this morning (around 9 to 10 am) 
and then to the west by mid afternoon (2 to 3 pm). Relative humidities
will drop into the low 20s. There are low chances for a few snow showers
to develop this afternoon and evening. Westerly winds will increase in strength 
through Monday night with poor RH recovery.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 22. 
Max humidity........77 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Ridge top winds will be from the east at 10 mph. In sheltered
					spots on the west/southwest slopes winds will be light and 
					terrain driven. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......600 to 1100 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of 
                    snow showers in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 37. 
Min humidity........20 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 to 15 mph in the morning (9 to 10 am), 
					winds will shift to the west in the afternoon (2 to 3 pm). 
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......7700 to 8200 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Very good. 

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly clear (10-20 percent). Slight chance of 
                    snow showers in the evening. 
Min temperature.....Around 20. 
Max humidity........50 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Ridge top: West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 25 
                    mph. In sheltered spots, west winds of 5 to 15 mph gusting 
					to 20 mph.
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......800 to 1300 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 25 mph increasing to west 
                    around 40 mph overnight. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). 
Max temperature.....Around 45. 
Min humidity........20 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the 
                    southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 28 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
LAL.................1. 
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 
Mixing height.......7500 to 8000 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....West 25 to 35 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent. 

$$
Forecaster...EW
Requested by...Ray Black
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2405520.0/UNR
.DELDT 03/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Raymond.black@state.sd.us