996 
FXUS63 KGRR 292028
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
328 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderating Temps, Pleasant Weekend Ahead

- Record Temperatures Possible Monday, Rain Monday Night Into 
  Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

- Moderating Temps, Pleasant Weekend Ahead

Sfc ridge shifts east and southerly flow commences tonight. 
Result is for moderating temperatures with highs recovering to 
near 50 degrees on Friday. Cooler along the lakeshore north of 
Holland though thanks to 15-25 mph breeze coming in from the 
chilly Lk MI waters still in the mid/upper 30s. 

Srn plains shortwave lifts northeast reaching srn Lwr MI by 
Friday evening. Dry air mass in place should keep us dry but some 
virga or sprinkles cannot be ruled out late Friday into Friday 
night. The main impact will be for a period of cloudiness 
especially south and east of GRR. 

We'll remain under an upper level ridge with increasing southwest
flow through the weekend. Highs are expected to be in the 50s on 
Saturday with 60s on Sunday. The pressure gradient will increase 
on Sunday with an approaching trough resulting in breezy 
southerly winds with gusts potentially getting up to 30 mph. 

- Record Temperatures Possible Monday, Rain Monday Night Into 
  Tuesday

Temperatures continue to warm into Monday with current forecast 
highs looking to get close to or even break some records. The 
Monday record high temperatures are: MKG 62, GRR 66, LAN 64, BTL 
69, BIV 72 and AZO 72. It seems more likely for us to hit these 
records with guidance trending a little later with rain. The upper
level trough, positive vorticty advection, and moisture line up 
more toward Monday night into Tuesday. For now stuck with the NBM 
PoPs, but wouldn't be surprised if they ended up trending lower 
during the day Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected with southwest winds into Friday.
There will be some low level wind shear tonight with the low level
jet moving through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 PM EST Thu Feb 29 2024

A new Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the increasing
southerly flow. It is spilt into two sections; the northern
portion going all the way through the end of the day Saturday
where higher waves are expected to persist. The southern section 
meanwhile only goes through the end of the day Friday since winds 
diminish Friday night south of Grand Haven such that waves 
subside back below advisory criteria. Additional Small Craft 
Advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday as well as 
stronger southerly flow becomes re-established. 

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for LMZ845-846.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Saturday for LMZ847>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meade/RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...Meade