178 FXUS61 KBGM 280817 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 317 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain moves back into the area overnight with even a few rumbles of thunder possible in Northeast PA. A strong cold front moves through Wednesday afternoon bringing strong winds and a line of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures quickly fall below freezing Wednesday evening after the cold front moves through with a flash freeze of wet roads possible. Lake effect snow sets up over Central New York with some isolated heavy snow possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1235 AM Update... No major changes at this time, but the chance for significant lake effect snow in north-central NY is increasing, and headlines will likely be issued before daybreak. 955 PM Update... Dried out much of the area for the rest of this evening as showers have quickly moved off to the east. More showers will fill back in overnight with a few rumbles of thunder possible for NE PA. Winds were adjusted late tomorrow into tomorrow evening based off the latest guidance, taking both sustained winds and gusts up. Sustained winds were increased blending the 18Z NAM with the NBM and looking at soundings, gusts were bumped up to closer to 40kts, minus the Wyoming Valley. Previous discussion... A dry slot will dry out the region for most of the night but another round of rain showers moves in late tonight into tomorrow morning. Decided to keep thunder out of the grids before 7am but forecast soundings do have some more elevated CAPE so some of the stronger showers could contain some lightning. With a deepening low moving into the Hudson Bay region, a strong low level jet gets cranking late tonight into tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds and rain showers will help keep the boundary layer somewhat stable preventing some of the higher winds from mixing down but areas with downslope winds across the Finger Lakes into the hills south of the Thruway and Catskills, stronger gusts are possible with potential gusts to 60 mph so a high wind watch was kept for these regions. The rest of the region will still be seeing plenty of gusts to around 40 mph with higher gusts possible with any showers that develop in the warm sector. A strong cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon into the early evening with a line of strong showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Given that the 0-6 km shear is up over 50 knots and the low level jet has winds to near 60 mph at 5000 feet ahead of the front, there is the potential strong to very strong gusts as the line moves through. Once the cold front is through late tomorrow afternoon into the eventing, temperatures drop quickly from the 50s down into the 20s along with strong synoptic winds from the cold air advection. A flash freeze is possible on any wet roads tomorrow night. Looking at soundings as well as timing of precipitation in most CAMs, the heaviest precipitation will be east by the time the atmosphere cools enough for snow so accumulations tomorrow afternoon and evening behind the cold front are looking light. Lake effect snow gets cranking Wednesday night into Thursday with strong cold air advection across the ice free Great Lakes. Low level flow around the trough is looking favorable for a multi-lake connection from Superior, through Georgian Bay, and then through Lake Ontario. Boundary layer wind shear has little directional shear with good bulk shear which will help organize stronger lake effect bands. With the boundary layer wind directions between 290 and 300 degrees, a strong band of snow will likely form and impact Onondaga and Madison Counties. Given that the band will likely be persistent for many hours, significant accumulations are possible where the band sets up. Given some uncertainty in the exact wind direction through the boundary layer, no headlines have been issued yet as a few degree change in wind direction could result in vastly different snow totals. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 305 AM Update... An abrupt transition occurs, heading right back into another period of above normal temperatures. High pressure will shift off of the Midatlantic Coast Friday, opening the door to return flow out of the south-southwest. This along with abundant sunshine - definitely noticeable given the start-of-March increasing sun angle - will boost temperatures into the 40s-lower 50s Friday despite a chilly dawn. Contained within southwest flow aloft, will be a weakening wave ejecting out of the Southern Plains. It will arrive into our region during the first half of the weekend. Clouds are a given, but rain chances more iffy since it will fall into initially very dry low level air. Areas east of I-81, especially Poconos- Catskills, stand the somewhat better chance of some rain late Friday night into Saturday. If it arrives soon enough, it could start with a brief high elevation wintry mix. Meanwhile, Finger Lakes to Syracuse areas are more likely to stay dry. After lows in the 30s Friday Night, temperatures again nudge up a bit more to upper 40s-mid 50s Saturday. This followed by upper 30s-lower 40s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 305 AM Update... There is high confidence in anomalously warm pattern early next week, though embedded weaknesses within the ridge poses uncertainty for whether spotty showers could be around. Generally speaking, southwest flow will keep pumping in warm air. Highs of 50s-lower 60s, and lows of mainly 40s, are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Models do somewhat disagree, however, on whether an embedded wave or two could cause spotty showers. For example, the 00Z GFS is too dry in the lower levels for precipitation Sunday-Monday yet also progressively brings a new trailing boundary into the area Tuesday. The 00Z ECMWF meanwhile is weaker and drier with that boundary, struggling to even get it into the region; yet it does hang back with a prior weak upper trough Sunday-Monday and perhaps a few spotty showers from it. Regardless, precipitation-wise nothing high impact; fairly light if anything at all. The bigger deal will simply be a continuation of mainly warm weather. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very dynamic day on the way. Low clouds with fuel alt to IFR ceilings are slowly creeping NW towards ELM and ITH, and will likely arrive in the next couple of hours. Meanwhile, a band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is approaching from the southwest. Lightning appears to be spotty, and while a rumble of thunder at AVP can't be ruled out, probability is still low and it would be quite brief. Difficult to say what will happen with the lower clouds as the showers move through, but upstream obs suggest you have to get well south to see any improvements, so will keep things more or less persistent through the night. Additional waves of rain showers and some lulls are on the way for today. Expect some minor improvements to ceilings, but timing this is difficult, especially as winds will become more of a concern through the day. Expect gusts 30-35 knots ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon. Models' timing of the FROPA is fairly consistent, and was able to fit this into a 2 hour window at most sites. A line of elevated convection is likely to develop along the front, with isolated thunder possible, but again did not carry TS in the TAFs due to low probability. Went with TEMPOs primarily for strong gusts (40+ knots) with sudden wind shifts at time of frontal passage. Temperatures will drop very rapidly behind the front, but stratiform rain showers look to come to an end before they can change to snow. We may see a brief lull (1-2 hours) in the winds behind the front before they crank up again, but the strongest gusts of this system are likely to be post-frontal this evening. Gusts 35 to 45 knots will be common, with the odd 50 knot gust not out of the question, and most likely at SYR or RME. Bands of lake effect snow will develop mainly after 03Z, with some restrictions possible at ITH, ELM, and BGM if they set up just right, possibly reaching AVP as well given ideal conditions for deep inland extent. SYR and RME are more likely to be impacted, but the heavier snow should hold off until just after the TAF period as the bands become more mature. Outlook... Late Wednesday Night... Restrictions likely as lake effect snow bands will take shape across the region, with some impacts even into NEPA. Potentially more significant lake effect snow bands and associated restrictions may impact northern terminals, possibly including SYR. Thursday...Lake effect snow showers and associated restrictions possible at all CNY terminals except ELM. Otherwise, becoming VFR by Thursday night. Friday through Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... Record highs were set yesterday the 27th at Binghamton(64) and Syracuse(71). This was the third warmest February day on record at Syracuse with a high of 71. The warmest February temperature on record was 75 back on February 21st 2018 at Syracuse. This was the 4th warmest February day on record at Binghamton. The warmest February day was back on February 24th in 2017 where it hit 70 degrees. Record daily highs are forecast again today, the 28th. This time, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton may reach their record of 64 degrees, last set in 2017; forecast is 65. Binghamton's relatively weak daily record of 58 degrees should easily fall, with a forecast into the 60s, and the Syracuse record of 66 degrees is also expected to be eclipsed with a forecast of upper 60s. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...High Wind Watch from 2 PM EST this afternoon through Thursday morning for NYZ009-015>018-036-037. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPH NEAR TERM...AJG/DK/ES SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...AJG/MPH/MWG CLIMATE...