919 FXUS61 KBGM 280027 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 727 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Rain moves in this evening and overnight with even a few rumbles of thunder possible in NEPA. A strong cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon bringing strong winds and a line of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures quickly fall below freezing tomorrow evening after the cold front moves through with a flash freeze of wet roads possible. Lake effect snow sets up over CNY with some isolated heavy snow possible. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 635 PM Update.. Mostly minor PoP adjustments made to the next few hours at this time. There could be a rumble or two of thunder for northern Steuben County over the next hour or so with some lightning being detected just to the west, otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains on track. Previous discussion below. 340 PM Update... Temperatures got quite warm again with high temperatures getting warmer than forecast again. Clouds have moved in so additional temperature gains is unlikely. A band of rain showers with a few isolated thunderstorms is moving through central PA into western NY. Given the heating ahead of the line, the rain showers will at least hold together through the evening and move through from west to east. The south winds downsloping across the Finger Lakes may dry out the line for the NY Thruway but still kept chance of rain in for the evening. NEPA into the Southern Tier has a better chance at seeing better rainfall and even a small possibility of a rumble of thunder or two with some elevated CAPE as the warm front moves through. A dry slot will dry out the region for most of the night but another round of rain showers moves in late tonight into tomorrow morning. Decided to keep thunder out of the grids before 7am but forecast soundings do have some more elevated CAPE so some of the stronger showers could contain some lightning. With a deepening low moving into the Hudson Bay region, a strong low level jet gets cranking late tonight into tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front. Clouds and rain showers will help keep the boundary layer somewhat stable preventing some of the higher winds from mixing down but areas with downslope winds across the Finger Lakes into the hills south of the Thruway and Catskills, stronger gusts are possible with potential gusts to 60 mph so a high wind watch was kept for these regions. The rest of the region will still be seeing plenty of gusts to around 40 mph with higher gusts possible with any showers that develop in the warm sector. A strong cold front moves through tomorrow afternoon into the early evening with a line of strong showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Given that the 0-6 km shear is up over 50 knots and the low level jet has winds to near 60 mph at 5000 feet ahead of the front, there is the potential strong to very strong gusts as the line moves through. Once the cold front is through late tomorrow afternoon into the eventing, temperatures drop quickly from the 50s down into the 20s along with strong synoptic winds from the cold air advection. A flash freeze is possible on any wet roads tomorrow night. Looking at soundings as well as timing of precipitation in most CAMs, the heaviest precipitation will be east by the time the atmosphere cools enough for snow so accumulations tomorrow afternoon and evening behind the cold front are looking light. Lake effect snow gets cranking Wednesday night into Thursday with strong cold air advection across the ice free Great Lakes. Low level flow around the trough is looking favorable for a multi-lake connection from Superior, through Georgian Bay, and then through Lake Ontario. Boundary layer wind shear has little directional shear with good bulk shear which will help organize stronger lake effect bands. With the boundary layer wind directions between 290 and 300 degrees, a strong band of snow will likely form and impact Onondaga and Madison Counties. Given that the band will likely be persistent for many hours, significant accumulations are possible where the band sets up. Given some uncertainty in the exact wind direction through the boundary layer, no headlines have been issued yet as a few degree change in wind direction could result in vastly different snow totals. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 220 PM Update... Surface high pressure builds into the region Thursday night allowing southerly flow to return. This wind shift cuts off any remaining lake effect showers as drier air gets advected into the area. Upper level trough keeps temperatures cool overnight with lows ranging in the upper teens to low 20s. Temperatures begin to warm Friday as an upper level ridge establishes aloft. Highs are expected to climb back into the mid to upper 40s across the area with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Meanwhile, a short wave originating over the south western portion of the US travels across the country collecting moisture from the gulf as it tracks northeast. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 220 PM Update... The previously mentioned short wave moves into the region late Friday night/early Saturday morning bringing a chance of rain showers. At this time model guidance shows this system tracking closer to the coast suggesting light precipitation for NEPA, the Western Catskills and portions of the Southern Tier. Otherwise a large upper level ridge sets up aloft and expands north into eastern Canada. Under this pattern temperatures are expected to trend well above average with highs ranging in the upper 50s to low 60s. Leaned on NBM Pops to account for variability in model guidance towards the end of the period. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Once the line of showers is through this evening, low level moisture streams in with all terminals likely seeing MVFR cigs by 06Z with some locations taking till 10Z. A lull in the rain showers for most of the night but another round of rain showers moves in around 8Z to 10Z with a low level jet strengthening. LLWS is looking likely as winds aloft approach 50 knots so there will still be close to a 30 knot difference in the lowest 2000 feet despite the gusty winds at the surface. AVP, ELM, and BGM have the best chance for prolonged IFR restrictions tomorrow after 12Z as rain persist but some dry air tries to work in at SYR, RME, and ITH so restrictions are lower confidence at those terminals tomorrow morning. LLWS decreases by around 12Z as southerly wind gusts pick up into the 20-30 knot range. These gusts shift more westerly and northwesterly after 18Z. Steadier rain showers should lead to IFR conditions for most terminals from 20-00Z Thursday. Outlook... Wednesday Night... Restrictions likely as lake effect snow bands will take shape across the region, with some impacts even into NEPA. Potentially more significant lake effect snow bands and associated restrictions may impact northern terminals, possibly including SYR. Thursday...Lake effect snow showers and associated restrictions possible at all CNY terminals except ELM. Otherwise, becoming VFR by Thursday night. Friday through Sunday...VFR. && .CLIMATE... Record highs were set today at Binghamton(64) and Syracuse(71). This was the third warmest February day on record at Syracuse with a high of 71. The warmest February temperature on record was 75 back on February 21st 2018 at Syracuse. This was the 4th warmest February day on record at Binghamton. The warmest February day was back on February 24th in 2017 where it hit 70 degrees. There is still potential for the values to change a degree or two between now and later this evening. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning for NYZ009-015>018-036-037. Wind Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ022>025-044>046-055>057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG/DK SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/MWG CLIMATE...MWG