711 FXUS63 KDMX 231008 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 408 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold front arrives today with increasing northwest winds and cooler temperatures. - Warm advection returns on Saturday with above normal temperatures persisting through the weekend. Even warmer on Monday with potential for record highs. - Strong system arriving Tuesday with windy conditions and some limited chance (20-30%) of precipitation. Colder on Wednesday, but for a short duration. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Tranquil weather early this morning with clear skies over much of Iowa although some clouds are approaching the north along with light westerly surface flow. This is in advance of a shortwave dropping south into the northern Midwest and an associated surface front currently dropping through central Minnesota. This boundary slides through the state today with increasing cold advection into the afternoon. However, prior to this cooler airmass arriving, temperatures should respond with readings back into the 50s across the southern half or so of the forecast area. With the arrival of the boundary, lower clouds are also expected to increase which limits insolation into the afternoon, therefore temperatures are likely to steady off if not drop slightly as the cold advection increases. Strengthening northwest winds are expected to also make it feel cooler into the afternoon. Some weak forcing arrives with the shortwave this afternoon but deeper saturation within the soundings are lacking over much of the forecast area, therefore little precipitation is expected outside of a sprinkle or flurry. This system departs tonight with surface ridging sliding across the state. Clearing skies and the light winds should allow readings to drop nicely by Saturday morning, especially in favored locations in the Nishna valleys in western Iowa and in the north. Warm advection intensifies quickly on Saturday with increasing southwest winds. Temperatures may be somewhat slower to respond as the cooler air gets scoured out, particularly in the east but readings well above normal are still expected. The warming persists into Sunday with quiet conditions overall. Heading into Monday, warm advection restrengthens ahead of a trof passing through the western United States and may bring the potential for near record to record highs. Fire weather will also need to be monitored during this time as winds are expected to be stronger. The operational Euro has become more progressive with this system compared to a more amplified GFS and the Ensemble guidance from both suggests that the Euro may be closer to reality at this point. This outcome would see the cold front arriving sooner on Tuesday with convection remaining well south and east of the forecast area. Both operational models have very little or limited precipitation across the state with this system along with a quick shot of colder air on Wednesday. However, warm advection begins rapidly by later Wednesday with a return to early spring conditions by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Main concerns will be increasing wind aft 14-15z along with MVFR cigs mainly at MCW between 18 and 00z. Wind gusts approach 30kts during peak mixing and will relax between 00z and 02z. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cogil AVIATION...REV