388 FXUS64 KMOB 220958 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 357 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Friday) Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Upper flow over our area transitions into a more zonal flow today then slight troughing aloft develops tonight and Friday. Surface high pressure that has been over the area for the past few days will slide east out over the Atlantic today, then with the slight troughing aloft tonight a cold front will move into our area from the west. The front should clear most of our area by daybreak Friday, and will certainly be off to the east of our area by midday Friday. Moisture return in advance of the front will be rather marginal, with PWATS early today less than 0.50 inches increasing to around 1.20 inches just in advance of the frontal passage tonight. Increasing cloud cover is expected as the front approaches and moves across our area, but with moisture return meager and instability marginal, only expect some scattered light showers tonight in association with the frontal passage. Still looking at rainfall totals that should be less than a tenth of an inch. it will be a little breezy in association with the frontal passage as well, with generally southwesterly winds today, shifting west and then northwesterly tonight into Friday. Rains end and drier air filters back into the area on Friday in the wake of the front. Afternoon temperatures today will be warmer than past several days, rising into the low to mid 70s over inland areas and lower 70s (maybe even a few upper 60s) right along the coast. Lows tonight should range from the mid to upper 50s along and north of the Highway 84 corridor, but mainly in the lower 60s at all points to the south. Slightly cooler in the wake of the cold front on Friday, but still relatively mild and near normal temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s inland and lower 70s at the coast. DS/12 && .SHORT TERM... (Friday night through Saturday night) Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 A broad upper trough will encompass much of the eastern CONUS at the start of the short term period, with its axis just east of the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure will begin building in the wake of a cold front, with north-northwesterly flow. Drier air will filter into the region as the high pressure continues to shift eastward, while northwest flow persists aloft. Under mostly clear skies, overnight lows on Friday night will dip into the lower to mid 40s and then rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. A cooler night is expected on Saturday night as lows fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s. /73 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 These cooler temperatures will be short lived, as high pressure builds along the northern Gulf and flow aloft becomes more zonal. Temperatures on Sunday will warm into the lower to mid 70s, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Temperatures will continue to moderate through the middle of the new work week, with persistent southerly surface flow and a ridge building from the west. The warmest day in the period will be Tuesday as the ridge amplifies over the area, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will also be mild, and generally remain in the 50s and 60s. An upper level trough will swing into the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, with a surface cold front trailing from its parent low over the Great Lakes. This will bring our next chance for rain at very end of the period, with too much uncertainty to get into any specifics at this time. /73 && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Onshore flow will increase today and tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, along with building seas. A moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly wind today and tonight will become west to northwesterly Friday into Friday night in the wake of the cold front. Winds will probably reach at least high-end SCEC criteria tonight into early Friday in the wake of the front, especially over the Gulf waters beyond 20NM offshore. After coordination with LIX, since conditions appear to be borderline SCA, we will maintain the SCEC for now and let the dayshift make the call on whether or not a SCA will be needed after they get a look at the 12z model data. At any rate, conditions could be hazardous for small craft tonight into early Friday. A subsiding offshore flow continues through late Saturday, then a light to moderate onshore flow develops by late Sunday and continues into the early part of next week. DS/12 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 74 60 74 46 71 42 70 51 / 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 71 61 72 48 70 45 66 54 / 0 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 70 62 72 51 69 47 65 55 / 0 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 76 57 71 42 70 37 72 45 / 0 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 76 57 71 43 70 39 74 48 / 10 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 75 57 69 43 68 36 71 47 / 10 50 10 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 73 58 74 43 71 37 70 45 / 0 40 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Friday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through late Friday night for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob