339 FXUS65 KPUB 192316 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 416 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Snow will increase over the central mountains by later this afternoon through tonight. - Above average temperatures persist across the plains. Some light snow showers are expected over the Central Mountains Wednesday. - Some mountain snow continues on Thursday along with slightly cooler temperatures. Rain showers will be possible over the plains. - Drier, warmer conditions return Friday into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 326 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 Currently...satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across southern Colorado this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed nicely, with much of the Plains in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Areas across the San Luis Valley have warming into the upper 40s. Tonight and Tuesday...upper level high pressure will shift east across Colorado overnight, with increasingly westerly flow aloft by morning. Weak energy moving through the ridge may lead to a few light snow showers over the Central Mountains late tonight into Tuesday morning. Outside of the Central Mountains, dry conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning. Ridgetops will be gusty overnight with gusts in excess of 35 mph. Areas along the Eastern Mountain lee slopes will remain breezy overnight. This will help keep temperatures warmer, with upper 30s for the mid slopes. Temperatures will fall into the upper 20s along the lower Arkansas River Valley, and teens across the San Luis Valley. Zonal westerly flow will remain in place for Tuesday with weak energy across the western portion of the state. Light snow showers will be possible through the afternoon along the Continental Divide, with the main focus over the Central Mountains. Snow accumulations for the next 24 hours will be minor with most areas seeing less than 2 inches. Dry conditions will prevail across the Plains. Afternoon mixing will help temperatures warm nicely across the Plains, where highs will top out in the 60s to lower 70s. Breezy conditions will continue over the higher terrain, down along the lee slopes throughout the day Tuesday. Mozley && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 326 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 Strong southwest flow aloft will continue to move in over our area as a broad upper-level ridge pushes east around mid-week. This will result in continued lee troughing and westerly surface winds on Wednesday along with temperatures far above normal. High temperatures will be in the 60s to near-70 over most of the southeast plains, with the higher valleys and the Palmer Divide areas climbing into the 50s. Over the Central Mountains, westerly orographic snow is expected to kick up some light scattered snow showers, starting early on Wednesday and lasting throughout the day. Models differ a bit on moisture content, but overall any snow accumulation over the peaks is expected to be light. The ridge flattens and moves off by early Thursday, with a shortwave disturbance kicking a weak cold front south across the plains. High temperatures will get knocked down noticeably across the plains, with highs now in the 50s. Additionally, some scattered precipitation will spread to the rest of our higher terrain, namely the peaks of the Sangres and the Palmer Divide/Pikes Peak Region. Models once again vary on moisture content with this, but the current consensus amongst guidance is for snow to stay confined to the mountain peaks and the higher elevated parts of the Palmer Divide, but a few isolated rain showers could move onto the I-25 corridor Thursday evening. QPF with this system still appear relatively light at this time, and snow accumulations are generally coming in under 1 inch. Looking at Friday into the weekend, northwest flow sets up overhead once again, pushing most of the moisture out of our area. Temperatures will warm up again, sitting well above seasonal norms as a new upper ridge briefly builds in over our area. High temperatures are once again expected to climb into the 50s-60s across the area. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 413 PM MST Mon Feb 19 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites, KCOS, KPUB, and KALS, for the next 24 hours. Late afternoon gusty south- southeasterly winds are expected to weaken quickly after sunset. South to southwesterly winds will increase through Tuesday afternoon, with gusts around 25kt at all three terminals. Mid and upper-level cloud cover will increase overnight tonight and prevail through much of Tuesday. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO AVIATION...EHR