252 FXUS61 KAKQ 142004 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EST Wed Feb 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier weather expected for the remainder of the work week. A fast moving low pressure system will bring a chance for rain and snow to parts of the area Friday night into early Saturday. Cool and dry weather is expected during the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1235 PM EST Wednesday... High pressure continues to build toward the area from the west early this afternoon with partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 50s inland with 40s near the coast/on the eastern shore. Northwest winds are still a bit gusty (to 15-25 mph inland/20-35 mph near the coast) but should diminish during the remainder of the aftn before becoming light/calm tonight as the surface high builds over the area. Temperatures will drop into the mid 20s for much of the area tonight, but it will be slightly warmer near the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: -The potential for accumulating snow early Saturday morning has increased across northern portions of the area (roughly from Louisa to Salisbury), where 1-2" of snow is in the forecast. -There is the potential for a light accumulating snow as far south as the Richmond Metro, but confidence in this is lower. -There is still some uncertainty regarding the track and strength of the system, so expect changes in the forecast in the coming days. The surface high becomes suppressed to our SE on Thursday while a fast moving clipper system tracks well to our north. This system will drag a cold front through the area Thursday night. Return southerly flow will allow temps to rise into the upper 50s-lower 60s in most areas west of the Ches Bay...although it will struggle to get out of the upper 40s-lower 50s on the ern shore. While there will be an increase in clouds on Thu in advance of the front, no precipitation is expected. Clearing Thu night with winds becoming W then NW behind the front. Lows will fall into the mid 30s-mid 40s. The main focus of the period is the increasing potential for accumulating snow across the northern half of the area Friday night into Saturday morning...as a fast moving shortwave in zonal flow aloft tracks over the area. No wx concerns ahead of the system on Fri with increasing clouds and highs in the 50s in most areas (mid- upper 30s on the ern shore). The GFS/ECMWF and GEFS/EPS ensembles are in much better agreement than they were yesterday with respect to the track of the system. At this time, model consensus shows the system tracking across southern VA, with the most likely timing for precip between 10 PM-6 AM (before ending by sunrise as the system moves offshore). While the system will be fast moving...there will likely be a 3-6 hour period of light to moderate snow north of the low track, with light rain (with amounts under 0.10") in SE VA and NE NC. Despite temperatures falling to 32-33F, the snow will likely come down at a decent enough rate (thanks to fairly strong 850-700mb frontogenesis to the N of the low track). Also, the fact that this event will occur at night will help a bit with accums despite the marginal temps. Right now, the forecast calls for 1-2" of snow in areas from roughly Louisa-Salisbury...to less than 1" in the RIC Metro...with no snow at all south of a Farmville-Hopewell line. There is the potential for localized amounts greater than 2" in the most persistent bands...but too early to reflect this in the forecast. Of course, there will be changes in the forecast track and strength of the system during the next couple of days. Any travel issues Sat AM will be short-lived as the snow will quickly melt on Saturday with highs rising well into the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Wednesday... Models are coming into better agreement that a low pressure system will be moving off the Mid-Atlantic or Carolina coast early on Saturday morning. The GFS and ECMWF are showing similar solutions of a low track from west to east as colder air moves in from the north. Both show a rain/snow line across central or northern VA early Saturday morning as a low departs. Turning dry on Saturday as the low pressure move over the Atlantic Ocean, and remaining dry into the middle part of next week. Saturday and Sunday will be the coldest days of the period, with temps 10F+ below seasonal averages. Temps moderate to near average early next week. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1235 PM EST Wednesday... VFR conditions with partly to mostly clear skies are expected to continue through the 18z/14 TAF period. Gusty NW winds near the coast will gradually diminish this aftn-early this evening. Winds will become light or calm tonight as high pressure builds overhead before becoming south at ~10 kt during the day on Thursday. Outlook: VFR/dry through Friday. There is a chance of light rain Fri night-Sat, with a short period of snow possible at RIC and especially SBY. && .MARINE... As of 305 AM EST Wednesday... Key Messages: - SCAs remain in effect today for the Ches Bay and coastal waters. - Confidence is increasing in SCA conditions late Thu into early Fri. High pressure gradually builds in from the W today, centering over the local waters tonight before before sliding offshore Thu evening. Winds have remained generally light overnight. However, a secondary cold front drops S through the area early this morning with winds becoming NW 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across the N coastal waters and upper bay to ~15 kt across the S coastal waters. Winds remain elevated through this afternoon before dropping below SCA criteria by late afternoon. Additionally, waves build to 2-4 ft later this morning with seas of 4-6 ft subsiding to 3-4 ft late. As such, SCAs remain in effect for the bay and coastal waters this morning, gradually ending from S to N through the day. With high pressure building over the local waters tonight, winds become light and variable. Once the high moves offshore late Thu into Thu night, winds become S and increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across the bay and 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across the coastal waters late Thu afternoon into Thu evening before becoming SW Thu night. A cold front pushes through late Thu night into Fri morning with winds becoming NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt across the upper bay and N coastal waters. SCAs will likely be needed with winds dropping below SCA criteria by Fri afternoon. Seas also build to 4-5 ft across the N coastal waters. Finally, there is increasing confidence that a weak area of low pressure will move through the area late Fri night into early Sat morning with SE winds potentially increasing to 15-20 kt ahead of the low. High confidence in SCA conditions exists late Fri night into Sat when winds become NW 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt behind the low. Sub-SCA conditions likely return from late Sat into the middle of next week. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP/ERI NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI LONG TERM...CP/ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...RMM