556 FNUS71 KBOX 120516 FWSBOX Spot Forecast for MassWildlife Montague Plains WMA Rx Fire...MassWildlife National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1216 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EST on February 12. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Weak high pressure over New England Monday provides dry weather, light and variable winds and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Minimum relative humidities range from 40-50 percent Monday afternoon. .OUTLOOK...Tuesday through Friday... A significant coastal storm is likely Monday night into Tuesday, with heavy snow likely across a portion of SNE, but uncertainty remains regarding exact storm track and intensity. This will impact precipitation types and amounts. In the wake of the storm, colder, blustery and dry weather will overspread the region for Wednesday through Friday. .TODAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny. CWR.................0 percent. Max temperature.....Around 45. Min humidity........45 percent. Dewpoint............25. Min apparent temp...26. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming west around 5 mph early, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph early, then becoming light late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 2 to 9 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to fair (28400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............5. ADI.................1 to 10 increasing to 18 to 26, then increasing to 25 to 32 in the afternoon decreasing to 3 late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 20 in the late morning and early afternoon, then increasing to 25 late in the afternoon. TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........19 20 19 17 16 17 18 18 21 24 27 29 Weather cov..... Weather type.... Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............26 26 28 31 35 38 41 43 44 45 44 41 Dewpoint........25 25 26 26 26 25 25 24 25 25 25 25 RH..............96 96 92 81 69 59 52 47 47 45 47 52 Heat index (F)..26 26 28 28 31 34 37 39 41 43 41 39 20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W W W NW 20 FT wind spd..1 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 20 FT wind gust.5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 Surface wnd dir.W W W W W W W W W W W NW Surface wnd spd.1 1 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 Surface wnd gst.5 5 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.8 2.1 Transp wind dir.W NW W W W W W W W W W NW Transp wind spd.2 2 3 5 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 LVORI...........9 8 6 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 ADI.............1 2 5 10 18 21 26 32 31 26 25 3 Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 3 6 13 16 22 28 26 22 20 12 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. Snow likely early in the morning. CWR.................0 percent increasing to 98 percent after midnight. Min temperature.....Around 29. Max humidity........88 percent. Dewpoint............25. Min apparent temp...26. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming north 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 9 mph after midnight. Mixing height.......300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....North 3 to 5 mph shifting to the northeast 3 to 10 mph after midnight. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft). LVORI...............4. ADI.................2 to 9. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 6.0. TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........32 35 36 38 39 47 55 63 74 85 96 97 Weather cov..... CHC CHC LKY LKY Weather type.... SN SN SN SN Tstm cov........ CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100 100 Temp............38 35 33 32 32 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 Dewpoint........26 26 26 26 25 26 25 25 25 25 25 26 RH..............62 69 75 78 75 78 78 78 78 75 75 78 Heat index (F)..36 35 33 29 29 29 28 28 28 27 27 26 20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N N 20 FT wind spd..3 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 20 FT wind gust.7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 Surface wnd dir.NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N N Surface wnd spd.3 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 Surface wnd gst.7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15 Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 Transp wind dir.NW NW N N N N N NE NE NE NE NE Transp wind spd.5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 7 9 10 LVORI...........3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI.............2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5 6 9 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 9 10 Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR Ceiling (kft)...20 20 20 20 20 20 15 15 14 11 9.0 6.0 .TUESDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Snow in the morning, then snow likely early in the afternoon. Chance of snow early in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the afternoon. CWR.................100 percent decreasing to 78 percent in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 31. Min humidity........75 percent. Dewpoint............25. Min apparent temp...15. Surface winds (mph).North winds 10 to 15 mph becoming 12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the north late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 20 mph shifting to the north 16 to 20 mph late in the afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (12900 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to good (47400 knot-ft) in the afternoon. LVORI...............5. ADI.................11 increasing to 22 to 27 in the morning, then increasing to 32 to 41 early increasing to 43 to 45 late in the afternoon decreasing to 22. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. CEILING (KFT).......4.0 decreasing to 1.5 early in the morning, then decreasing to 1.0 in the late morning and early afternoon increasing to 2.0 early in the afternoon increasing to 3.0 increasing to 6.0 late in the afternoon. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........98 99 100 99 90 74 Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY CHANCE AREAS Weather type....SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW BLSNOW Tstm cov........ CWR.............100 100 100 100 80 80 Temp............32 30 28 27 27 27 Dewpoint........26 27 27 27 26 24 RH..............78 88 96 100 96 88 Heat index (F)..25 20 16 15 15 16 20 ft wind......NE 10 NE 13 N 15 N 15 N 15 N 13 20 ft wind gust.17 21 24 24 23 20 Surface wind....NE 10 NE 13 N 15 N 15 N 15 N 13 Surface wnd gst.17 21 24 24 23 20 Mix hgt (ft)....1200 1300 1400 1900 2400 2800 Transport wind..NE 13 NE 16 NE 17 N 18 N 20 N 20 LVORI...........4 4 4 4 4 4 ADI.............11 24 27 34 41 45 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..13 18 20 30 40 47 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR Ceiling (kft)...4.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.5 $$ Forecaster...Nocera Requested by...Alex Entrup Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2402988.0/BOX .DELDT 02/12/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL alex.entrup@mass.gov