363 FXUS61 KPBZ 100602 AAB AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 102 AM EST Sat Feb 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain showers are expected late tonight into Saturday ahead of an incoming cold front, with low total accumulations. Slightly cooler, but still above normal, but dry conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. The next low pressure system that may contain a mix of rain and snow will arrive late Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry weather and continued above-normal temperatures. -------------------------------------------------------------- Clouds will return overnight amid moist advection ahead of the next shortwave trough. Broad ascent ahead of the developing surface cold front will attempt to promote light rain showers during the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning, favoring the I-80 corridor. Otherwise, much of the night will remain dry with temperature running nearly 30 degrees above the daily low average. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - More widespread rain chances through the day Saturday. - Temperatures remain well above normal Saturday. - Cooler but generally dry on Sunday --------------------------------------------------------------- Though there are some variations in the timing of the systems eastward movement, the consensus depict the upper shortwave trough and the associated surface cold front crossing the region through the day Saturday. Jet-induced ascent may be enough to create a few isolated showers ahead of the front, otherwise the expectation is for precipitation chances to peak just ahead of the boundary where lift is maximized. There is a high probability for rain (80-90% probability of greater than 0.01" of accumulation), but lack of strong forcing will limit total accumulations (generally less than 10% probability for 12 hour totals to exceed 0.25"). Area temperature will in the 50s/60s ahead of the front with temperature falling after its passage. Record high minimums for the day are within reach at most climate sites like KPIT, but will likely depend on how much cooling occurs prior to midnight. Sunday is expected to be primarily dry under the influence of surface high pressure to the west while upper flow remains out of the southwest. A weak shortwave to the south may provide light rain during the afternoon over the WV higher terrain, but little impact is expected if that occurs. High temperature will be about 10 degrees cooler than Saturday's readings but still represent about 10 degrees above the daily average. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - The next potential system will impact the region late Monday into Tuesday, with a range of potential winter weather- related impacts. --------------------------------------------------------------- Ensembles depict the arrival of the next low pressure system during the Monday to Tuesday period, lifting out of the TX High plains towards the New England coast. Latest trends are starting to favor a less phased, more progressive low track that does create a coast low along the MD shores. This synoptic setup would feature rain developing for the region by Monday evening as the general trough axis sits to the west and the sfc low to the south; then changing over to snow by Tuesday morning as the trough axis shifts east and the low deepens out in the Atlantic. Precipitation residence time would be short, limit total QPF amounts as potential snowfall accumulations are likely to offer minimal impact. The axis for accumulation would generally favor northern WV through western PA, but north-south fluctuations still could occur. The scenario that can't be ruled out yet is greater phasing of the southern stream trough with its northern pattern; this would cause the overall low to deepen slightly and slow its forward progression. More precipitation residence time as cold air moves in on the backside early Tuesday morning could then increase snowfall totals. Given recent warm spell, it will remain difficult to see impacts, but this lower probability outcome still bears mentioning. The main story thereafter will be the general favoring of eastern CONUS troughing that will yield occasional shortwave passages within northwest flow for the Upper Ohio River Valley. This regime would favor near to slightly below average temperature along with periodic precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions for most of the night as high cirrus blanket the region. The exception will be at ZZV, which will begin the forecast with MVFR cigs. Clouds at the rest of the ports will begin to lower as dawn approaches, with all ports expected to drop into MVFR cigs. MVFR cigs should continue through the morning as surface winds strengthen. Southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible by mid- morning and through the afternoon. An improvement back to VFR cigs are anticipated during the afternoon, except at FKL and DUJ where MVFR cigs may linger. Rainfall today looks to be light and rather hit or miss. Most of the showers should be non-restrictive. .Outlook... Improvements to VFR are expected for most terminals late Saturday followed by a possible dip in cigs again Saturday night. Widespread VFR is likely once again on Sunday before restrictions return Monday into Tuesday as the next weather system approaches from the south. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frazier NEAR TERM...Frazier/Milcarek SHORT TERM...Frazier LONG TERM...Frazier AVIATION...22