332 FXUS64 KTSA 080158 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 758 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of tonight) Issued at 758 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 A breezy, unseasonably warm evening is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas, with extensive mid and high cloud cover combining with the windy conditions to prevent much in the way of cooling overnight. Wind speeds and gusts have dropped off some from earlier observations, but an increase is expected late this evening and into early tomorrow morning in response to a strengthening low level jet. This should also lead to potential for isolated showers across first, parts of northeast Oklahoma and eventually, far eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas. Hourly temperature trends have also been adjusted some to reflect the minimum temperature occurrence around midnight with an increase in accordance with the expected increase in winds. Except for this change to the hourly temperatures and a resulting degree or two rise in the forecast lows, the rest of the forecast is on track. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 Isolated showers may be ongoing tomorrow morning across parts of SE OK and NW AR but should diminish as the morning progresses. Warm afternoon is on tap as cloud cover lessens during the day. Temperatures and breezy conditions will raise fire weather concerns, but will hold off on any fire weather headlines at this time. It also appears that winds tomorrow will stay below advisory criteria, however later shifts can revisit. Another warm day is expected Friday ahead of and approaching cold front. Some shower activity with one or two rumbles of thunder are possible across far SE OK Friday night as the front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler temperatures, closer to seasonal averages return Saturday. Rain chances increase for the latter half of the weekend as the next system moves through. Still uncertainty with the track of this system and colder air associated with it, so at this time will continue with a rain snow mix across NE OK and NW AR Sunday night and into Monday morning. Temperatures still look to warm quickly for the start of the next work week, so winter weather impacts, if any, will be short lived. Once this system departs, settled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast cycle. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Feb 7 2024 VFR conditions will deteriorate into MVFR category overnight tonight through tomorrow morning with low clouds filtering into the region from the south. Expecting longest impacts from low ceilings to occur over NW AR sites/ MLC while impacts should be more brief over NE OK sites. Overall potential remains low, but scattered light rain showers may develop late tonight/ tomorrow morning areawide. Skies clear from west to east Thursday morning/ afternoon. Otherwise, low level jet develops overhead this evening and overnight with a period of LLWS expected for all sites. Gusty sfc winds will prevail through the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 54 71 45 70 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 51 72 48 72 / 20 20 0 10 MLC 56 72 48 71 / 10 10 0 10 BVO 51 70 39 70 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 52 70 46 70 / 20 20 0 10 BYV 50 67 48 67 / 20 20 0 10 MKO 53 71 46 68 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 51 69 45 68 / 20 0 0 0 F10 54 70 45 69 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 54 71 50 69 / 10 10 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...43