664 UXUS97 KPUB 061205 SRGPUB Soaring Forecast National Weather Service Pueblo, Colorado 0505 MST Tuesday, February 6, 2024 This forecast is for the Air Force Academy for Tuesday, February 6, 2024: If the trigger temperature of 60.5 F/15.8 C is reached...then Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s) Maximum height of thermals.................. 10730 ft MSL (3101 ft AGL) Forecast maximum temperature................... 59.0 F/15.5 C Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 MST Time of overdevelopment........................ None Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less Height of the -3 thermal index................. 8883 ft MSL (1255 ft AGL) Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 02/07.... Poor Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available Remarks... Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:01:00 / 17:25:41 MST Total possible sunshine........... 10 hr 24 min 41 sec (624 min 41 sec) Altitude of sun at 12:13:20 MST... 35.34 degrees Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 02/06/2024 at 0500 MST Freezing level.................. 7702 ft MSL (73 ft AGL) Additional freezing level....... 13017 ft MSL (5388 ft AGL) Convective condensation level... 24353 ft MSL (16724 ft AGL) Lifted condensation level....... 21076 ft MSL (13448 ft AGL) Lifted index.................... +7.0 K index......................... -4.1 Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50000 -61.3 -78.3 255 75 38 2.1 1.2 M M M M M 45000 -58.3 -72.9 250 88 45 1.0 0.5 M M M M M 40000 -56.7 -70.1 260 112 57 1.1 0.6 M M M M M 38000 -54.7 -66.5 255 113 58 3.8 2.1 M M M M M 36000 -52.3 -62.1 255 111 57 3.8 2.1 M M M M M 34000 -49.4 -56.9 250 105 54 6.5 3.5 M M M M M 32000 -45.6 -50.1 245 90 46 6.4 3.5 M M M M M 30000 -41.0 -41.8 240 75 39 9.6 5.3 27.2 80.9 9.4 M M 29000 -38.1 -36.6 240 67 34 9.6 5.3 27.1 80.7 9.4 M M 28000 -35.3 -31.5 240 59 30 9.6 5.3 27.1 80.7 9.5 M M 27000 -32.6 -26.7 240 52 27 7.2 4.0 26.9 80.4 9.5 M M 26000 -30.3 -22.5 245 49 25 7.4 4.1 25.9 78.7 8.8 M M 25000 -28.1 -18.6 245 46 24 7.4 4.1 25.1 77.2 8.2 M M 24000 -25.9 -14.6 250 44 23 7.1 3.9 24.4 75.9 7.7 M M 23000 -23.3 -9.9 245 45 23 7.0 3.8 23.0 73.4 6.6 M M 22000 -21.2 -6.2 240 45 23 7.0 3.8 22.1 71.8 5.9 M M 21000 -19.1 -2.4 235 46 24 7.0 3.9 21.1 70.1 5.2 M M 20000 -17.0 1.4 235 46 23 7.0 3.9 20.2 68.3 4.3 M M 19500 -16.0 3.2 235 45 23 7.0 3.9 19.7 67.5 4.0 M M 19000 -14.9 5.2 235 45 23 7.0 3.9 19.3 66.8 3.6 M M 18500 -13.9 7.0 235 45 23 7.2 4.0 18.9 66.0 3.2 M M 18000 -12.8 9.0 235 44 22 7.2 4.0 18.4 65.2 2.9 M M 17500 -11.7 10.9 235 42 22 7.8 4.3 18.1 64.5 2.5 M M 17000 -10.5 13.1 235 41 21 8.0 4.4 17.7 63.9 2.2 M M 16500 -9.4 15.1 235 39 20 8.0 4.4 17.5 63.4 2.0 M M 16000 -8.2 17.2 240 38 19 8.1 4.5 17.2 62.9 1.7 M M 15500 -7.0 19.4 240 36 19 8.1 4.4 16.9 62.5 1.5 M M 15000 -5.7 21.7 245 35 18 8.9 4.9 16.7 62.1 1.3 M M 14500 -4.4 24.1 245 34 18 8.8 4.8 16.6 61.8 1.2 M M 14000 -3.0 26.6 245 33 17 9.0 5.0 16.4 61.6 1.1 M M 13500 -1.6 29.1 245 30 16 9.3 5.1 16.3 61.4 1.1 M M 13000 -0.1 31.8 240 28 15 12.0 6.6 16.3 61.3 1.1 M M 12500 1.5 34.7 240 28 14 7.3 4.0 16.4 61.5 1.2 M M 12000 2.7 36.9 240 27 14 8.0 4.4 16.2 61.1 1.0 M M 11750 3.3 37.9 235 28 14 8.0 4.4 16.0 60.8 0.9 M M 11500 3.9 39.0 235 28 14 7.6 4.1 15.9 60.6 0.7 M M 11250 4.5 40.1 235 28 14 7.3 4.0 15.7 60.2 0.6 M M 11000 5.0 41.0 235 28 15 6.9 3.8 15.5 59.9 0.4 M M 10750 5.5 41.9 235 28 14 6.1 3.4 15.2 59.4 0.1 M M 10500 5.9 42.6 235 27 14 6.2 3.4 14.9 58.9 -0.2 253 1.3 10250 6.4 43.5 235 27 14 6.4 3.5 14.7 58.4 -0.4 232 1.2 10000 6.9 44.4 235 26 14 6.0 3.3 14.4 57.9 -0.7 210 1.1 9750 7.3 45.1 235 26 13 5.1 2.8 14.1 57.3 -1.1 191 1.0 9500 7.6 45.7 235 25 13 5.9 3.2 13.7 56.7 -1.4 173 0.9 9250 8.0 46.4 235 24 12 3.7 2.0 13.4 56.1 -1.8 154 0.8 9000 8.1 46.6 235 24 12 1.6 0.9 12.8 55.1 -2.4 144 0.7 8750 8.2 46.8 235 23 12 1.5 0.8 12.2 54.0 -3.1 133 0.7 8500 8.3 46.9 235 23 12 3.9 2.1 11.6 52.9 -3.7 122 0.6 8250 8.4 47.1 240 22 11 -5.4 -2.9 11.0 51.9 -4.3 111 0.6 8000 6.9 44.4 240 19 10 -38.1 -20.9 8.8 47.8 -6.6 150 0.8 7750 -1.2 29.8 260 8 4 -26.5 -14.5 -0.7 30.7 -16.2 379 1.9 7500 M M M M M M M M M M M M 7250 M M M M M M M M M M M M 7000 M M M M M M M M M M M M 6750 M M M M M M M M M M M M * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * * 02/06/2024 at 0800 MST | 02/06/2024 at 1100 MST | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +2.5 CINH... 0.0 K Index... +7.2 | CINH... -5.6 K Index... +8.6 | Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50000 -60.9 -77.6 250 71 36 2.0 1.1 | -60.3 -76.5 245 67 34 1.9 1.0 45000 -57.9 -72.2 250 88 45 0.7 0.4 | -57.6 -71.7 245 81 42 0.9 0.5 40000 -56.8 -70.2 255 109 56 0.8 0.4 | -56.1 -69.0 250 118 61 1.0 0.5 38000 -54.8 -66.6 255 110 57 3.9 2.1 | -54.5 -66.1 245 119 61 3.0 1.6 36000 -52.5 -62.5 250 108 56 3.9 2.1 | -52.7 -62.9 240 113 58 3.0 1.6 34000 -49.3 -56.7 245 103 53 7.3 4.0 | -49.8 -57.6 235 106 54 8.4 4.6 32000 -45.0 -49.0 245 92 47 7.2 4.0 | -44.8 -48.6 235 94 48 8.3 4.6 30000 -40.2 -40.4 240 80 41 9.1 5.0 | -39.6 -39.3 235 81 42 8.9 4.9 29000 -37.5 -35.5 240 74 38 9.1 5.0 | -37.0 -34.6 235 75 39 8.9 4.9 28000 -34.8 -30.6 235 67 35 9.1 5.0 | -34.4 -29.9 235 69 35 8.9 4.9 27000 -32.2 -26.0 235 61 32 7.5 4.1 | -31.8 -25.2 230 63 32 7.8 4.3 26000 -29.9 -21.8 240 57 29 7.6 4.2 | -29.5 -21.1 230 57 29 7.8 4.3 25000 -27.7 -17.9 240 52 27 7.6 4.2 | -27.1 -16.8 230 51 27 7.8 4.3 24000 -25.4 -13.7 245 48 25 7.0 3.9 | -24.8 -12.6 230 46 24 6.8 3.7 23000 -23.4 -10.1 245 46 24 6.7 3.7 | -23.1 -9.6 230 44 23 5.7 3.1 22000 -21.4 -6.5 245 45 23 6.7 3.7 | -21.0 -5.8 230 42 22 5.7 3.1 21000 -18.8 -1.8 240 43 22 7.7 4.2 | -19.3 -2.7 230 42 21 5.7 3.1 20000 -16.5 2.3 240 42 21 7.7 4.2 | -17.6 0.3 230 44 23 5.7 3.1 19500 -15.4 4.3 240 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -16.8 1.8 230 45 23 5.7 3.1 19000 -14.2 6.4 240 41 21 7.7 4.2 | -16.0 3.2 225 47 24 5.6 3.1 18500 -13.2 8.2 235 41 21 5.8 3.2 | -15.1 4.8 225 47 24 6.6 3.6 18000 -12.3 9.9 235 41 21 6.0 3.3 | -14.1 6.6 225 46 24 6.6 3.6 17500 -11.4 11.5 235 42 22 5.9 3.2 | -13.1 8.4 225 45 23 6.3 3.5 17000 -10.6 12.9 230 42 21 5.8 3.2 | -12.2 10.0 225 42 22 6.1 3.4 16500 -9.7 14.5 230 41 21 5.9 3.3 | -11.3 11.7 220 39 20 6.2 3.4 16000 -8.8 16.2 230 41 21 6.6 3.6 | -10.3 13.5 220 37 19 7.9 4.4 15500 -7.8 18.0 230 40 20 6.3 3.5 | -9.1 15.6 215 34 18 7.7 4.2 15000 -6.7 19.9 230 38 20 8.6 4.7 | -7.8 18.0 215 33 17 9.1 5.0 14500 -5.4 22.3 230 36 19 8.5 4.7 | -6.4 20.5 215 35 18 9.2 5.0 14000 -4.1 24.6 235 34 17 9.0 4.9 | -5.0 23.0 215 36 18 9.2 5.0 13500 -2.8 27.0 235 31 16 9.2 5.0 | -3.6 25.5 215 35 18 9.3 5.1 13000 -1.4 29.5 235 29 15 10.9 6.0 | -2.2 28.0 215 34 17 11.1 6.1 12500 0.1 32.2 235 30 15 7.5 4.1 | -0.7 30.7 215 33 17 7.5 4.1 12000 1.3 34.3 240 30 16 8.3 4.5 | 0.5 32.9 215 30 16 8.4 4.6 11750 2.0 35.6 240 31 16 8.6 4.7 | 1.2 34.2 215 31 16 9.2 5.0 11500 2.6 36.7 240 31 16 9.0 4.9 | 1.8 35.2 220 31 16 8.8 4.8 11250 3.3 37.9 245 32 16 9.8 5.4 | 2.5 36.5 220 31 16 8.7 4.8 11000 4.1 39.4 245 32 16 8.6 4.7 | 3.1 37.6 220 31 16 8.1 4.4 10750 4.6 40.3 245 31 16 7.2 4.0 | 3.7 38.7 225 30 16 7.1 3.9 10500 5.2 41.4 240 31 16 7.4 4.0 | 4.2 39.6 225 29 15 7.1 3.9 10250 5.8 42.4 240 31 16 10.7 5.8 | 4.8 40.6 225 28 15 9.2 5.1 10000 6.7 44.1 240 30 16 9.5 5.2 | 5.5 41.9 230 29 15 8.7 4.7 9750 7.2 45.0 240 29 15 6.0 3.3 | 6.1 43.0 230 29 15 6.5 3.6 9500 7.7 45.9 240 28 14 6.4 3.5 | 6.6 43.9 230 29 15 6.1 3.4 9250 8.2 46.8 240 26 14 6.9 3.8 | 7.0 44.6 230 29 15 8.3 4.6 9000 8.6 47.5 240 25 13 3.8 2.1 | 7.7 45.9 230 29 15 7.1 3.9 8750 8.7 47.7 235 23 12 0.3 0.2 | 8.0 46.4 235 26 13 3.7 2.0 8500 8.8 47.8 235 21 11 3.3 1.8 | 8.3 46.9 235 24 12 5.5 3.0 8250 8.8 47.8 235 20 10 -5.0 -2.7 | 8.6 47.5 240 21 11 2.2 1.2 8000 7.5 45.5 230 18 9 -30.5 -16.7 | 8.5 47.3 240 19 10 1.2 0.6 7750 4.3 39.7 240 12 6 -48.2 -26.4 | 8.7 47.7 240 13 7 8.7 4.8 7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 02/06/2024 at 1400 MST | 02/06/2024 at 1700 MST | CAPE... +9.8 LI... +2.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +3.8 CINH... -11.7 K Index... +6.3 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +12.5 | Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 50000 -60.3 -76.5 240 68 35 1.0 0.5 | -59.0 -74.2 235 58 30 1.3 0.7 45000 -58.8 -73.8 240 91 47 1.2 0.7 | -57.2 -71.0 240 79 40 -0.1 -0.1 40000 -57.0 -70.6 240 111 57 1.2 0.7 | -57.1 -70.8 235 116 60 0.0 0.0 38000 -54.8 -66.6 235 112 58 5.0 2.7 | -55.7 -68.3 235 118 61 3.9 2.1 36000 -51.5 -60.7 230 108 56 5.0 2.7 | -53.1 -63.6 230 108 56 3.9 2.1 34000 -47.9 -54.2 230 107 55 7.7 4.2 | -49.7 -57.5 225 97 50 8.8 4.8 32000 -43.3 -45.9 225 106 54 7.6 4.2 | -44.5 -48.1 225 79 41 8.8 4.8 30000 -38.6 -37.5 225 99 51 8.2 4.5 | -39.3 -38.7 225 64 33 8.6 4.7 29000 -36.2 -33.2 230 91 47 8.2 4.5 | -36.7 -34.1 230 61 31 8.6 4.7 28000 -33.7 -28.7 235 83 42 8.2 4.5 | -34.2 -29.6 230 57 29 8.6 4.7 27000 -31.4 -24.5 235 75 38 6.9 3.8 | -31.6 -24.9 235 54 28 7.6 4.2 26000 -29.4 -20.9 235 67 34 6.7 3.7 | -29.5 -21.1 235 52 27 7.2 3.9 25000 -27.4 -17.3 230 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -27.4 -17.3 235 51 26 7.2 3.9 24000 -25.4 -13.7 230 52 27 6.3 3.5 | -25.2 -13.4 235 49 25 7.2 4.0 23000 -23.7 -10.7 230 48 25 5.6 3.1 | -23.1 -9.6 235 51 26 7.2 3.9 22000 -22.0 -7.6 230 45 23 5.6 3.1 | -21.0 -5.8 235 53 27 7.2 4.0 21000 -19.8 -3.6 230 43 22 7.1 3.9 | -18.4 -1.1 230 55 28 6.7 3.7 20000 -17.8 -0.0 230 47 24 7.0 3.9 | -16.4 2.5 230 55 28 6.7 3.7 19500 -16.7 1.9 230 50 26 7.0 3.9 | -15.4 4.3 225 55 28 6.8 3.7 19000 -15.7 3.7 230 52 27 7.1 3.9 | -14.4 6.1 225 55 28 6.9 3.8 18500 -14.7 5.5 230 53 28 6.2 3.4 | -13.5 7.7 225 55 28 4.0 2.2 18000 -13.8 7.2 230 54 28 6.2 3.4 | -13.1 8.4 215 52 27 3.3 1.8 17500 -12.8 9.0 230 54 28 6.7 3.7 | -12.6 9.3 210 49 25 3.7 2.0 17000 -11.8 10.8 230 54 28 7.4 4.0 | -11.8 10.8 210 48 25 6.0 3.3 16500 -10.6 12.9 225 53 28 7.3 4.0 | -11.0 12.2 215 47 24 5.9 3.2 16000 -9.5 14.9 225 53 27 8.3 4.5 | -10.2 13.6 215 45 23 5.2 2.8 15500 -8.2 17.2 225 53 27 8.2 4.5 | -9.4 15.1 215 44 22 5.2 2.8 15000 -7.0 19.4 225 52 27 7.6 4.2 | -8.7 16.3 215 42 22 4.8 2.6 14500 -5.8 21.6 220 50 26 7.5 4.1 | -8.0 17.6 220 41 21 4.6 2.5 14000 -4.7 23.5 220 48 25 7.6 4.2 | -7.3 18.9 220 40 20 5.1 2.8 13500 -3.5 25.7 225 46 24 7.8 4.3 | -6.4 20.5 220 38 20 6.4 3.5 13000 -2.4 27.7 225 44 23 10.5 5.8 | -5.5 22.1 215 37 19 9.8 5.4 12500 -1.0 30.2 225 41 21 6.0 3.3 | -3.9 25.0 215 36 18 7.1 3.9 12000 0.0 32.0 225 37 19 7.0 3.9 | -2.8 27.0 210 34 17 7.7 4.2 11750 0.6 33.1 225 36 18 7.7 4.2 | -2.1 28.2 210 33 17 9.2 5.0 11500 1.1 34.0 225 35 18 7.6 4.2 | -1.4 29.5 210 32 16 9.6 5.3 11250 1.7 35.1 225 33 17 7.6 4.2 | -0.7 30.7 205 31 16 9.1 5.0 11000 2.2 36.0 220 31 16 7.3 4.0 | 0.0 32.0 205 30 15 9.2 5.1 10750 2.7 36.9 220 29 15 6.4 3.5 | 0.7 33.3 200 29 15 8.8 4.8 10500 3.2 37.8 220 28 14 6.3 3.5 | 1.3 34.3 200 28 15 8.6 4.7 10250 3.7 38.7 220 27 14 8.2 4.5 | 2.0 35.6 195 27 14 9.3 5.1 10000 4.4 39.9 220 24 13 8.8 4.8 | 2.7 36.9 195 26 14 9.5 5.2 9750 5.0 41.0 220 22 12 7.8 4.3 | 3.4 38.1 190 26 13 8.6 4.7 9500 5.6 42.1 220 21 11 7.4 4.0 | 4.0 39.2 190 25 13 8.2 4.5 9250 6.1 43.0 220 19 10 8.8 4.8 | 4.6 40.3 190 25 13 8.5 4.6 9000 6.9 44.4 215 17 9 9.2 5.1 | 5.3 41.5 185 24 13 7.3 4.0 8750 7.4 45.3 215 16 8 8.1 4.4 | 5.7 42.3 185 24 12 6.0 3.3 8500 8.0 46.4 210 14 7 7.0 3.8 | 6.1 43.0 180 23 12 3.8 2.1 8250 8.5 47.3 210 13 7 11.2 6.2 | 6.5 43.7 180 23 12 10.3 5.7 8000 9.5 49.1 205 12 6 10.1 5.5 | 7.2 45.0 180 21 11 0.9 0.5 7750 9.6 49.3 195 9 5 -3.9 -2.1 | 5.8 42.4 175 15 8 -35.3 -19.4 7500 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 7250 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 7000 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M 6750 M M M M M M M | M M M M M M M ________________________________________________________________________________ This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT (1330 UTC). It is not continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance. The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or numerical weather prediction model data taken near the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colorado at North Latitude: 38 deg 58 min 48.000 sec West Longitude: 104 deg 49 min 12.000 sec Elevation: 6572 feet (2003 meters) and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground. Erroneous data such as these should not be used. The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in the soaring forecast. DEFINITIONS: CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the energy available for convective development, also known as the positive area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should convective activity develop. CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft, lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.) Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass, if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are produced by surface heating only. Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a "trigger temperature" for that level. Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius. Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain waves. K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158 and is reproduced in the following table: below -10 no or weak thermals -10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals 5 to 15 good soaring conditions 15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers 20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing probability of showers and thunderstorms above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate inversions. Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation. Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with positive values showing stable conditions. Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation. Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index are applied to these calculations. Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature. Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger temperature and the time of overdevelopment. Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus) or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud. Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests that little sunlight is reaching the ground. Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights: 1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists) where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more 2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists) where the wind speed no longer increases with height PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA) on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring. Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached and the time of overdevelopment. Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values are indicative of thermal lift. Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following: Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating >= 800 fpm Excellent >= 400 and < 800 fpm Good >= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair < 200 fpm Poor Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena, which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur: 1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover 2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts 3. initiation of widespread precipitation Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to reach the trigger temperature. Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000 feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic. Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough movements. 042613