410 FXUS63 KGID 030942 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 342 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An upper level low pressure system deepening over western portions of the Southern Plains will continue to bring rain chances to the forecast area today through Sunday, with the overall best chances being today through tonight. Activity is expected to diminish during the day on Sunday. - Central and southwestern portions of the forecast area have the potential to pick up additional rainfall amounts of another 0.5-1.0"...with locally higher amounts closer to 1.5" not out of the question. - Monday through Wednesday still looking to be dry, with rebounding high temperatures. Following 40s-low 50s today and mid-upper 40s for Sunday, highs climb back into the 50s-low/mid 60s by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 Currently through this weekend... Upper air and satellite data showing the area sitting under south-southeasterly flow early this morning...with an area of low pressure becoming better organized as it slides along the CO/NM border into the OK/TX panhandle area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, between this developing low to our southwest and troughing over the East Coast, a sharp ridge axis extends from from the far eastern Gulf Coast area northward into WI/MN...and another system is making it way into the Pacific Northwest region. Over roughly the last 6-9hrs, the a shortwave disturbance and increased lift from the approaching/deepening system has kept a fairly steady stream of rain showers going through the southwestern quarter or so of the forecast area...and there were even a handful of weak thunderstorms that moved through that area earlier this evening. Radar estimations showing up to this point that portions of Furnas, Phillips, Rooks, and Osborne counties have likely already picked up 0.75" to around 1" of rain so far. Low level stratus has settled in across the entire area, with ceilings under 500ft being reported by automated stations. At the surface, winds across the forecast area remain easterly, as we sit north-northeast of the main sfc low and west of high pressure settled in over the Great Lakes. Speeds are generally in the 10-15 MPH range, with an occasional gust closer to 20 MPH. Patchy fog (at times dense) will continue to be a concern this morning...would likely be a bigger problem if winds were lighter, and the showers sliding through portions the area are disrupting fog potential as well. A few of our automated sites are around 1/2-1/4SM, supported by area webcams...so decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for western portions of the forecast area, mainly affecting locations west of HWY 281 (for now) and north of the swath of precipitation. Will see how visibilities trend in the next few hours and will adjust headline as needed. Looking at today and Sunday...overall, there hasn't been any significant changes in the forecast...with showers continuing to stream through the forecast area. Models remain in good agreement showing the main upper level low pressure system continuing to deepen through the early morning hours today...but thanks to that high pressure ridging to our east blocking things up, this system doesn't make a whole lot of eastward progress, only making it to the eastern side of the OK/TX panhandle area by this evening. As we get into this evening/tonight and Sunday, models remain in good agreement showing better southeastward progress of the main upper low, thanks to high pressure at the northern edge of the ridging getting pinched/cut off and shifting a bit west and centering itself mainly over MN. Today-tonight continues to be the main time frame with the best potential for rainfall across the forecast area. This current wave of precipitation is expected to continue pushing north- northwest with time through the morning hours...and as it does so, those portions of the area currently seeing precipitation may have a bit of a lull in activity this afternoon. Activity is expected to expand across the area again this evening/tonight as the next wave of increased mid/upper level forcing sets up in a SE-NW orientation (similar to ongoing activity). Forecast precipitation chances remain on the high side (70+ percent) across the area, but there is some concern that those higher chances may be too broad in nature, with some models continuing to show a sharper cutoff on the northern side. As we get into Sunday, if anything (compared to 24 hrs ago) models are a touch quicker with diminishing/ending precipitation Sunday afternoon, with most showing dry conditions after 00Z, which the forecast continues to reflect. As far as additional rainfall amounts today-Sunday, forecast totals range anywhere from roughly 0.25" in the far northeast (portions of Polk/Nance/Merrick counties) to around 0.75"-1" in the Tri-Cities area and points to the southwest...and certainly can't rule out locally higher amounts closer to 1.5". Minor flooding is not out of the question, due to the rainfall itself or ice jams...obviously will continue keeping a close eye on areas with heavier rainfall amounts and river gauge trends through the weekend. Otherwise, shouldn't be a surprise that skies through the weekend will remain cloudy. Winds today remain easterly, and breezy (gusts near 20-25 MPH not out of the question, then gradually turn more northerly later tonight-Sunday as that main surface low to our south makes more eastward progress. As far as highs go, confidence is definitely not on the high side for today, the ongoing precipitation chances make things tricky...and if there is a lull this afternoon that would allow for those areas to warm a bit more. Current forecast highs range from the mid 40s in the north to low 50s in the south. Forecast highs for Sunday are in the mid-upper 40s areas-wide. Monday and on... The forecast for the first half of the new work week remains dry...with models in good agreement showing upper level ridging building over the central CONUS, sitting between this weekend system which makes its way toward FL and the next system over the West Coast. Models show the ridging being centered over the Plains Mon/Mon Night, then sliding east for Tues/Wed, allowing for southwesterly flow to return ahead of the next trough pushing inland from the West Coast. Next potential for a disturbance to swing northeast through the region looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday, but with models showing the potential for more zonal flow aloft and disturbances in the region, at least spotty small precipitation chances (around 20 percent) linger in the forecast Friday-Saturday. Temperatures are expected to rebound through mid-week...climbing from the 40s on Sunday to the upper 50s-low/mid 60s by Wednesday. Precipitation chances returning for Thursday on drops forecast highs back into the 40s-50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Feb 2 2024 IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast at both terminal sites during this TAF period, with low level stratus and low visibilities from fog/rain expected across the area. The area will also be impacted by a couple rounds of showers/rain, and have that mention going throughout the entire TAF period...though periodic brief breaks in precip are possible, confidence in their exact timing is not high. Winds through the period are expected to remain easterly, with potential for gusts over 20 MPH increasing late tonight and lingering through the end of the period. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 338 AM CST Sat Feb 3 2024 A few daily records for warm low/minimum temperature and one daily precipitation record are possible at Grand Island/Hastings airports in the upcoming days (the two sites for which we issue official Record Event Reports...RERGRI/RERHSI). Please keep in mind that for record warm lows to become OFFICIAL they need to "survive" the entire midnight-to-midnight CST calendar day. Records that appear most threatened follow: - Grand Island airport (GRI) possible warmest low temp records: Feb. 3 (Sat): Low so far is 40...current record 37 in 1909 Feb. 4 (Sun): forecast 36 at midnight...current record 36 in 1927 Feb. 5 (Mon): forecast 32...current record 35 in 2005 - Hastings airport (HSI) possible warmest low temp records: Feb. 3 (Sat): Low so far today is 41...current record 37 in 1962 Feb. 4 (Sun): forecast 36 at midnight...current record 36 in 1991/1954 Feb. 5 (Mon): forecast 32...current record 35 in 2005/1954 - Hastings airport (HSI) possible daily precipitation record: Feb. 3 (Sat): forecast 0.74"...current record 0.78" in 2012 && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ039-046-060-061- 072>074-082. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADP AVIATION...ADP CLIMATE...ADP