936 FXUS62 KTAE 020838 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 338 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 A warming and moistening trend will continue through the near term with surface high pressure remaining nearby. Light winds will be mostly variable as the surface high drifts around a bit. High cloud cover should diminish through the day with high temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows temperatures overnight are forecast generally in the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 An extremely dynamic system will be entering the region late Saturday night as a robust upper level subtropical jet tracks east across Northern Mexico and Texas. As this occurs, A positively tilted mid-level trough is expected to set up across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi effectively creating a very divergent pattern aloft across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. During Sunday, an occluded surface low is expected to settle into the north central Gulf of Mexico. The exact location and strength of this Gulf low is still uncertain at this time as global models have flip flopped the last few model cycles. Even though models have somewhat struggled the last few cycles, guidance does remain agreement that there will generally be a mid 990 mb surface low occluding over the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday and Monday. This will effectively promote widespread rainfall and windy conditions across the entire area as a strong pressure gradient develops across the region with the approach and exit of the surface low. By Monday morning, the aforementioned positively tilted trough is expected to undercut the Omega block that develops across the eastern Conus on Friday and Saturday. As this occurs the mid-level trough is expected to become cut-off from the main flow effectively remaining quasi-stationary over the region for 24 hours before ejecting southeastward on Tuesday. With the mid-level trough overhead Sunday night, Monday, and early on Tuesday, there will possibly be enough forcing for ascent to keep light showers in the region until late Monday night. Fortunately area averaged PWAT values will generally remain around 1 inch or less. This will keep flooding concerns at a minimum through this event. With the region generally remaining on the northern periphery of the warm front, severe weather is not expected; however, a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out at this time. Any deviations of the surface low north could introduce a slight warm sector into the region, which may lead to a marginal severe weather threat, but this solution looks unlikely at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 By Tuesday, the upper level trough and surface low pressure system that will impact the region this weekend should be east of the region and off the east coast of Florida. This will bring more benign and tranquil weather back into the region as an upper level ridge slowly starts to slide east into the Southeast by Wednesday. Simultaneously surface high pressure will start to settle into the Carolinas leading to dry and sunny weather to wrap up the work week. High temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will climb into the mid 60s as the region will remain on the back edge of the upper level trough; however, a warming trend is expected to start Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s move back into the region. By Friday, highs will climb into the low 70s areawide as southeast flow overtakes the tri-state area. Lows will follow a similar trend, with temperatures falling into the upper 30s to low 40s Tuesday and Wednesday nights, but only into the upper 40s to low 50s Thursday and Friday nights. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Some patchy fog will be possible across the FL Big Bend in the morning and could impact TLH for a few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds are expected. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Surface high pressure maintains tranquil boating through Saturday afternoon. Thereafter, conditions deteriorate from west to east in response to a developing low-pressure system traversing the northern Gulf coast. A Gale Watch has been introduced for a majority of the marine zones from the mouth of the Ochlockonee river to the Walton/Okaloosa county lines out 60 nm miles. Easterly winds are expected to strengthen to gale levels for a majority of Sunday. Chances for thunderstorms capable of locally stronger winds and waterspouts also return on Sunday. A lingering tight pressure gradient in place keeps hazardous boating into early next week with strong westerly breezes. Small Craft Advisory conditions look to continue after this through Tuesday, before reducing to SEC conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 Warming and moistening will continue over the next couple of days. Rain chances will increase Sunday as the next system pushes through the area. Fair dispersions are expected this afternoon before increasing to generally good Saturday. There are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 250 AM EST Fri Feb 2 2024 WPC has introduced a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across a majority of the region on Sunday. Current forecast widespread rainfall totals are around 1-1.5 inches at this time. Given the low PWATs forecast across the area, it is unlikely that rainfall totals will reach values that would increase flooding concerns for the area as current 3 hour FFG values range from 3-4 inches across the region. With the uncertainty still evident in recent model guidance on the strength and track of the surface low, there will continue to be some uncertainty on the potential for coastal flooding across the northeast Gulf on Sunday and Monday. This most recent model guidance has lowered the threat overall, but future model guidance could change this. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 50 Panama City 66 45 68 54 / 0 0 0 80 Dothan 68 42 69 49 / 0 0 0 60 Albany 68 41 69 48 / 0 0 0 30 Valdosta 68 41 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 Cross City 68 41 71 53 / 0 0 0 30 Apalachicola 64 47 63 54 / 0 0 0 70 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for GMZ750-752-755-770-772-775. && $$ NEAR TERM...Merrifield SHORT TERM...Bunker LONG TERM....Bunker AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...Bunker FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield HYDROLOGY...Bunker