911 FXUS64 KSHV 281148 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 548 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Cloudy skies and much cooler once again with upper 30s and lower 40s for most sites, and still a few mid 40s in our far eastern parishes at 4am. Surface high pressure is building into our Four- State area and driving the lowering heights across the MS River. The parent upper low is quickly lifting away through the OH River valley and the lingering turning aloft for us will soon fade, allowing the clouds to continue to erode away on the trailing edge. There may even be some stars over our I-30 corridor and the models agree the clouds, while slightly late departing, are going to go quickly late this morning and early this afternoon. Look for another day in the mid to upper 50s and NW winds around 5 to 15 mph. Tonight will be even colder with clear skies and some patchy fog. For areas could be dense in E TX where the warmer SW winds kick in before daybreak. Other areas will keep the fog light, but with sub-freezing readings for some of south Arkansas, could briefly lead to patchy freezing fog by daybreak or hopefully just some light frost. The 1028mb air mass will build in today and park over SE TX by this evening, so this will bring the SW winds back around for our E TX zones. And then with sunshine and the southwest winds spreading areawide, Monday should end up above average for late January with lower to middle 60s. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 As we continue through the work week, this same large air mass will slowly modify over the coastal bend of TX and spread across the W Gulf of Mexico with the remaining 1022mb core elongated and well spread out by Tuesday. And then for midweek, we will be building in some fresh surface high pressure down the MS River valley predawn on Wednesday with a 1025mb fresh core over Memphis by midday. This will quickly veer our W/SW winds around to NE for Wednesday. So Tuesday's warmer upper 60s and lower 70s will take a step back down into the low to mid 60s. Morning lows will settle a little above average in the upper 30s and lower to middle 40s on Tuesday, which will also then drop back just a bit for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Our NE winds will further veer to SE for Thursday as the high clouds begin to build back in overhead for a resumed warmer trend. A weak upper low will drift across the plains and present a slight chance for some rainfall for us by Friday night. However, a much deeper upper low will plow over the Baja and really ramp up rainfall coverage and intensity for us during this weekend. By daybreak on Sunday, the GFS has a 549dam core over the TX coastal bend waters, while the ECMWF is farther north over Central LA at 543dam and sporting a surface low of 994mb over Shreveport. This presents differences on the location of QPF, both intensity and approach into our area. Suffice it to say it will be our first rainfall in the new month and will likely trend towards better agreement by midweek. For now, the WPC day 7 QPF already outlooks some large areas of 2 plus inch totals for our east TX counties. However, after a nice long dry week, we should see much improvement on our area lakes, rivers and bayou levels; all ready for the next big round of el Nino fortified storms with the rich southwest flow aloft continuing as we head into the 8-10 day range. /24/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 A broad area of low stratus and MVFR ceilings will continue to affect most of the area early in the period. Latest satellite loops indicate the clearing line is already moving into East Texas, and some erosion of the clouds have occurred in Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. The clouds should continue to clear from west to east, and VFR conditions should also return to all terminals as the clouds exit. Clear skies are expected prevail areawide by 29/00z. Light winds are expected overnight, which could result in some patchy fog late in the period, but confidence is currently too low to mention in the TAFs. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 57 35 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 55 34 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 57 29 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 55 34 62 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 55 31 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 59 36 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 58 36 65 43 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 57 36 66 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...09