969 FXUS62 KKEY 260928 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 428 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 428 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 It has been a quiet night across the Florida Keys forecast area. KAMX is detecting a few nocturnally driven showers that have sprouted in the eastern coastal waters, but have generally remained offshore. These showers have remained shallow, which is expected due to the very dry atmospheric profile sampled by last night's 00z sounding. An expansive high centered near Bermuda has maintained moderate east to southeast breezes along the Reef. Winds along the island chain have decoupled and are between 5 and 10 mph. Nighttime microphysics is depicting partly cloudy skies, with most of the cloud cover owed to upper level cirrus traversing the area. Land-based observation sites have temperatures generally in the lower 70s, however, some more protected areas (such as the backyard of the NWS office) have radiated down to near 70 degrees. The aforementioned North Atlantic high will continue to dominate the Keys sensible weather through tomorrow night. As the high continues to drift further to the east to southeast, the pressure gradient across the region will relax, allowing for winds to slacken further. With the drier airmass expected to remain in place over the next few days, shower activity will be limited to nocturnally driven showers such as the ones we are seeing tonight. Have kept near nil rain chances for today and tomorrow, with a slight chance for tonight and Saturday night. Temperatures will remain above normal through Sunday morning ahead of the next frontal passage, with highs potentially reaching the lower 80s, and lows only dropping into the lower 70s. A frontal boundary will push through the forecast area during the day on Sunday. There will be minimal moisture return and the best support aloft will remain north of our area, however, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out during this time. Winds will quickly clock around to the northwest and freshen. Cooler air will be ushered in, so a downward trend in temperatures is expected during the afternoon on Sunday after the frontal passage. A brief blast of northwest to north winds will lead to breezy to windy conditions through Monday afternoon before relaxing. An extended cooldown will commence as winds will remain northerly through at least Thursday. The island chain will struggle to get above 70 degrees Monday through Wednesday, with lows dropping down into the 50s to near 60 degrees each night. A cool few days by Keys standards is on tap to wrap up January! && .MARINE... Issued at 428 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 Small craft should exercise caution in the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, there are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a large high pressure system centered near Bermuda will continue to slide steadily east to southeast over the next few days. East to southeast breezes will slacken through this afternoon as the high pushes towards the central North Atlantic. Breezes will slacken further Saturday through Sunday and veer from the southeast to southwest ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will push through the Florida Keys coastal waters late Sunday and Sunday night, with freshened northwest to north breezes expected in its wake. Beginning Monday, northerly breezes will begin to relax. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 428 AM EST Fri Jan 26 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period with near nil rain chances. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1905, the high temperature in Key West was only 51F and the low temperature was 44F, both cold records for the date. With an average temperature of 47.5F, this ranks as a 4-way tie for the second-coldest day on record in Key West. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 80 72 81 72 / 0 10 10 10 Marathon 80 73 81 72 / 0 10 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest