510 FXUS65 KTFX 250318 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 818 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Expect increasing clouds tonight, while there will be a chance for mostly light snow showers along the Rocky Mountain Front and across far Southwest MT. On Thursday, a stead light snow is expected during the afternoon hours around Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Overall, expect a warming trend this weekend and into early next week, with afternoon temperatures around 25 degrees above normal by Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Only slight amendments made to this evening's update, mainly adjusting PoPs down across Southwest Montana from Monida to West Yellowstone to account with current conditions. Light snow showers are still expected to move from west to east across Southwest Montana late tomorrow morning throughout the afternoon and evening; however, some accumulations remain less than 2 inches. Opted to allow the previous SPS to expire for now with anticipation future shifts will either reissue or issue a winter weather advisory should snow amounts increase into advisory level with the next model run. Otherwise, another night of fog development remains possible across portions of the Milk River Valley through much of the morning; something worth keeping an eye on if conditions worsen. - Pierce && .AVIATION... 420 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2024 (25/00Z TAF Period) VFR conditions largely continue for many terminals across North- central and Southwest Montana under predominately high-level clouds. Cloudiness increases throughout the period, with some light snowfall across Southwest Montana, mainly impacting KEKS. Reduced cloud ceilings result in MVFR conditions at times and as low as IFR briefly along the Hi-Line, specifically near KHVR. This will be short-lived; however, as cloudiness decreases back to VFR conditions toward the latter half of the TAF period for most terminals. Otherwise, breezy to occasionally gusty winds are anticipated at KCTB and KGTF during the afternoon hours on Thursday. - Pierce Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .HYDROLOGY... Numerous creek, stream, and river gauges continue to show signs of ice jams either upstream or downstream of their respective gauge locations. Ice jam activity will continue as temperatures moderate over the next week. Those with interests along local waterways should be prepared to take immediate action should flooding occur. Ice jams can occur suddenly and are unpredictable. Any reports of observed ice jam flooding would be appreciated. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM MST Wed Jan 24 2024/ Tonight through Thursday night...The main concern over the next day or so will be an upper level disturbance moving from west to east across MT. This will result in a few mostly light snow showers tonight along the divide and across Southwest MT. However, by Thursday afternoon a band of steadier snowfall is expected across the southern potions of Southwest MT, affecting areas around Big Sky and West Yellowstone. Most snow accumulations will be less than 2 inches, so an SPS was issued for now for these areas. A winter weather advisory still might be issued, especially if snow amounts increase a bit. Otherwise, expect breezy winds along the front range of the Rockies tonight and into Thursday. Friday through Wednesday...Expect a nice warming trend to develop over MT over the weekend and into early next week. By early next week, afternoon temperatures could approach 25 to 30 degrees above normal. This could result in some record high temperatures. Additionally there is a 10 percent chance afternoon temperatures could reach 70 degrees, which has never happened in Great Falls for the month of January. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 31 46 29 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 24 39 26 40 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 23 35 21 37 / 10 10 0 0 BZN 20 36 13 35 / 0 20 10 0 WYS 16 33 6 28 / 30 70 70 0 DLN 21 36 13 34 / 20 30 10 0 HVR 15 35 19 35 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 26 44 22 43 / 0 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls