617 FXUS64 KSHV 242331 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 531 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 After further consideration, have decided to not make any changes to the current Flood Watch across NE TX, SW AR and N LA either temporally or spatially attm and this decision was made for a couple reasons. First, the lead portion of the upstream upper trough will begin ejecting out overnight tonight towards the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE OK and SW AR. A majority of CAMS and deterministic models show an increase in precipitation coverage from southwest to northeast later tonight across our entire CWA as upper forcing increases from the west with time. While precipitation rates are not necessarily expected to become excessive with this new influx of overnight precipitation, given the fact the precip coverage should become widespread, think it would be immature to cancel any part of the given Flood Watch given how saturated our region is with many bayous, creeks, lakes and reservoirs near or out of their banks. The good news is the dry wedge aloft undercuts the trough rapidly from southwest to northeast during the morning hours on Thursday and thus precipitation should end rapidly from west to east Thursday Morning as a result. This plays in well with the expiration time of the Flood Watch occurring at Noon on Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts this evening through Thursday Morning will range from near one inch with isolated higher amounts near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor including most of SW AR to between one and three inches with isolated higher amounts across the southern half of NE TX, and most of Northern Louisiana. The heavier rainfall amounts across our entire CWA through Noon on Thursday should be across our southeast half. Sfc cold front finally begins to kick out late tonight through Thursday Morning in advance of the upper trough axis as well. Will need to watch for the development dense fog development again tonight across our northwest half but have stopped just short of issuing a Dense Fog Advisory with this package. We may see a few peaks of sunshine from west to east across our region Thu Aftn with high temperatures warming up into the 60s across most of the region. Any partial clearing we see Thursday will be brief as moisture returns once again in the form or more cloud cover for Thu Night as our region remains under the influence of southwesterly flow aloft even with the ejection of our current upstream trough but more of this in the long term discussion below. Thanks for the coordination today WPC, HGX, LZK. Prelims to follow...13. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 As mentioned above, we will be watching another upper trough across the Intermountain West Thu Night becoming cutoff before it ejects out into the Southern Plains during the day Friday. Upper forcing should not begin to impact our region until late in the day Friday but especially Friday Night with widespread precipitation once again. The good news is this next event should be a quick one before we begin to get dryslotted once again from southwest to northeast early on Saturday with the precipitation ending. Attm, it does not appear likely that additional precipitation Friday Night will be enough to influence already saturated soils and bloated water bodies but this will continue to be monitored as the event nears. In the wake of this next trough passage on Saturday, Sunday through at least Wednesday looks dry right now with northwest flow aloft our predominant flow next week. We should have another weak frontal passage sometime Tue into Tue Night but the post frontal airmass does not appear to be to chilly before before another frontal passage just beyond this 7-day forecast. 13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Wed Jan 24 2024 For the 25/00Z TAFs, cigs will continue to range from LIFR to IFR levels through the evening as abundant rainfall continues across area airspace, with little improvement until morning. Continuing to prevail -RA and -SHRA at impacted terminals, with minor visibility reductions during precipitation. After rainfall begins to taper off, development of BR and FG will potentially result in pronounced visibility reductions near dawn. Ceilings will begin to improve through the morning, returning to MVFR and VFR into the afternoon hours. Variable winds will be fairly light through the night with a few gusts possible, before becoming northwesterly by 25/12Z at speeds of 5 to 10 kts with gusts of up to 20 kts possible. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 56 67 49 67 / 100 50 0 10 MLU 60 68 49 67 / 100 100 10 10 DEQ 49 62 42 63 / 100 50 0 10 TXK 52 63 45 63 / 100 60 0 10 ELD 54 66 45 65 / 100 100 0 0 TYR 50 63 48 65 / 100 20 0 10 GGG 52 65 46 67 / 100 30 0 10 LFK 55 68 49 70 / 100 30 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for ARZ060-061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26