724 FXUS63 KSGF 222340 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 540 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Impacts from this morning's freezing rain will slowly improve through this evening with temperatures above freezing. - 80-100% chance of light to moderate rain through midnight tonight with another round Tuesday night. - Confidence increasing in patchy areas of drizzle and fog through Tuesday morning (50-70% chance). - Above normal temperatures expected from Tuesday through Friday with periods of rain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 353 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Impacts to slowly improve through this evening: The Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire, eliminating all winter weather alerts for our forecast area... Surface temperatures are now at or above freezing, and local reports and stations have confirmed that freezing rain has pretty much ceased across the forecast area. Precipitation type from here on out will be rain and drizzle. 80-100% chance of light to moderate rain through midnight: Current analysis depicts a longwave trough draped over the western CONUS. The jet stream is stalled over the central CONUS, transporting gulf moisture northward. Several embedded shortwaves are traversing through the longwave and will interact with the moisture. Each of these shortwaves will thus be the focus for rounds of rain for SW MO. One shortwave over OK/TX is currently lifting up into SW MO and is forcing our next round of rain. Associated positive vorticity advection and low- level warm air advection from a 40-50 kt low-level jet will produce some decent rain values for our area by Tuesday morning. The latest HREF and NBM probs give much of our area a 80-95% chance of greater than half an inch. The HREF suggests that locally heavier rain may set up near the south central MO border where the localized probability-matched mean outputs greater than an inch. The NBM tends to agree with 50-70% of greater than an inch of additional rainfall through noon Tuesday, centered within south central MO. Patchy drizzle and fog through Tuesday morning: Rain will exit the area by 12-2 AM as mid-level dry air fills on along the backside of the system. The lower levels will stay saturated, however, and with good omegas in place and zero chance of cloud ice (as suggested by the RAP), drizzle is likely (50-70% chance) from 2 AM until around 6AM-9AM when upward motion looks to dissipate and chances of cloud ice increase. There's also the potential for patchy fog, especially along the MO/KS and MO/AR borders. Latest model guidance nails these areas with much lower visibilities than the surrounding areas, however, with drizzle and another round of rain in the area, details are a bit fuzzy on whether the signal is coming from fog, low stratus, or drizzle. Taking a deeper dive in the model soundings reveals that elevated winds, unfavorable crossover temps, and lower MRi values seem to point toward low stratus/drizzle being more likely than fog. Therefore, have mentioned only patchy fog for those areas. Trends will continue to be evaluated to see if denser fog will need to be mentioned. Warmer temperatures expected: Temperatures will warm into the mid-40s Tuesday amidst continued southerly flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 353 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Periods of rain through Thursday: The next round of rain associated with the next shortwave will lift through the area Tuesday evening with the highest coverage during the overnight hours. The axis of integrated water vapor will have shifted slightly eastward by this time, generally resulting in lighter accumulations than tonight's system. Both the HREF and NBM advertise less than half an inch of rain within the 25th-75th percentile goalposts. The exception is in Shannon/Oregon county where amounts greater than half an inch are likely (60-80% chance). This is where the western edge of the moisture axis lines up with training bands of heavier rain could set up. Indeed, the WPC has the marginal risk for excessive rainfall just clipping those two counties. Lingering scattered rain (and maybe drizzle if these systems turn out anything like the past couple) will exist Wednesday during the day before the next shortwave and round of rain lift through Wednesday evening/night. There are still a few uncertainties on the timing of this next system (for example, the NAM has it moving through Thursday afternoon/night while other members push more for Wednesday evening, but what is clear is that the axis of moisture will have shifted slightly east again, so totals will be even lighter than the previous two systems. NBM outputs less than a quarter inch. During this entire period, totals across the forecast area look to be in the 1-2 inch range with higher values toward south-central MO and lower values toward west-central MO. There could be some isolated spots of up to 3-4 inches toward south central MO, especially if bands of heavier rain do set up and train across our southeastern CWA as HREF suggests. Warmer through Friday: During this time period, highs will be in the lower 50s and lows will be in the upper 30s before a final system kicks through Saturday bringing in more seasonable temperatures with highs in the lower 40s for the weekends. After the system over the weekend, warmer and drier weather looks like as the CPC puts us in the 60-70% chance for below normal precipitation on days 6-10 and 40-80% chance for above normal temperatures on days 8-14. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 A storm system continues to bring widespread rain to the area through this evening. IFR conditions are present with visibilities around 2 for 4 miles and ceilings around 500 to 700 feet. IFR flight conditions will then persist through tonight into Tuesday morning, with rain tapering off to a light drizzle. Some areas of patchy dense fog may develop towards sunrise, reducing visibilities to a half mile at times. Overcast skies with 300 to 500 feet ceilings linger into the later part of the TAF period. Winds will be 5 to 10 knots out of the east- southeast through tonight, becoming predominately easterly on Tuesday afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 458 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2024 Accumulations may come close to record precipitation. Here is a look at the current records: January 22: KSGF: 0.97/1937 KJLN: 0.87/2017 KVIH: 0.56/2017 January 24: KJLN: 0.30/2023 KVIH: 0.38/2010 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Price LONG TERM...Price AVIATION...Perez CLIMATE...Price